Jakarta. Indonesia is bracing for one of its largest annual travel surges, with an estimated 143.9 million people expected to travel during the 2026 Eid al-Fitr holiday period, according to projections released by the Transportation Ministry.

The figure represents about 50.6 percent of the country’s population and reflects sustained demand for homecoming travel, known locally as mudik, despite repeated government efforts to encourage the use of public transportation.

The first peak of the Eid homecoming travel is projected to occur on Friday, March 13, with a second wave expected on Wednesday, March 18.

The return flow is forecast to begin on Monday, March 23. The first return peak is expected on Tuesday, March 24, followed by a second wave on Saturday, March 28.

Transportation Minister Dudy Purwagandhi said the estimate was based on a nationwide survey conducted by the ministry’s Transport Policy Agency. West Java is projected to be the largest source of travelers, accounting for nearly 31 million people, followed by Jakarta with about 19.9 million and East Java with 17.1 million.

In terms of destinations, Central Java is expected to receive the largest influx, with nearly 38.7 million arrivals, ahead of East Java and West Java. At the city and district level, densely populated areas such as East Jakarta, Bogor Regency, and Bekasi Regency dominate as departure points, while many destinations are concentrated in Central Java.

“This projection underlines the need to prepare the 2026 Eid transportation operation in a comprehensive manner,” Dudy said on Wednesday.

Private vehicles are expected to remain the dominant mode of transport. The ministry estimates that more than 76 million people will travel by private car, followed by motorcycles at 24.1 million and buses at 23.3 million. Most car users are expected to rely on toll roads, while motorcycle riders are projected to favor alternative routes rather than main highways.

The government has again urged travelers to shift to public transport to reduce congestion and accident risks during the peak holiday period, when traffic volumes routinely overwhelm road capacity across Java.

Major transport hubs are also expected to see heavy congestion. Pasar Senen Station is forecast to be the busiest departure rail station, serving about 2.38 million passengers, while Yogyakarta Tugu Station is projected to be the busiest arrival station. Soekarno-Hatta International Airport is expected to top both departure and arrival volumes among airports.

At ferry crossings, the Merak–Bakauheni route linking Java and Sumatra is projected to handle more than 6 million passengers, making it the busiest sea crossing during the holiday.

To support the surge, the government has prepared tens of thousands of transport assets, including 31,000 buses, 829 sea vessels, 255 ferry ships, 392 aircraft, and more than 3,800 rail units, alongside hundreds of ports, airports, and train stations nationwide.

As in previous years, authorities are rolling out fare discounts to ease travel costs. These include full discounts on port service fees for ferry passengers, reduced fares on state-subsidized sea routes, discounts on economy-class train tickets, and lower economy airfares on domestic flights during the peak travel window.

The ministry is also expanding its free mudik program, offering seats on buses, trains and ships for tens of thousands of passengers, as part of efforts to reduce private vehicle use and ease traffic congestion.

On the regulatory front, the government has finalized a joint decree with the national police and the public works ministry to restrict the operation of heavy trucks with three or more axles during peak travel days, with exemptions for fuel, food staples, and emergency supplies.

Officials have also warned logistics operators against overloading and oversizing vehicles, citing road safety concerns amid the anticipated spike in nationwide mobility.