Purbaya Says World Bank May Have Miscalculated Indonesia Growth Outlook
Washington D.C. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the World Bank had miscalculated Indonesia’s growth outlook, pushing back against its projection of 4.7% expansion in 2026.
“That would imply the World Bank is effectively projecting us toward a recession, a sharp decline. I think the World Bank has miscalculated,” Purbaya said in an official statement received on Wednesday.
The Indonesian government is aiming for economic growth in 2026 to reach around 5.4%–5.5%, driven by strong household consumption, investment, and state budget spending. Purbaya is even more optimistic, saying growth this year could reach 6%.
Despite the criticism, Purbaya said Indonesia has secured a positive assessment from the World Bank and S&P Global Ratings regarding its fiscal strategy, signaling that earlier global doubts over the country’s policy direction are easing.
Speaking after meetings in Washington, DC, on April 15, he said international institutions were satisfied with Indonesia’s approach to balancing fiscal discipline with growth ambitions amid global uncertainty.
“The World Bank and rating agencies are very satisfied with our assessment of our strategy. So doubts about whether we can run sound fiscal policy while delivering strong growth seem to have disappeared,” he said.
The Washington meetings also included discussions with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, alongside senior officials from the World Bank Group and global rating agencies.
In those discussions, Purbaya reiterated the government’s commitment to maintaining a balance between economic growth and fiscal sustainability, particularly as global uncertainty remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. He added that Indonesia’s fiscal fundamentals remain strong, supported by sufficient buffers to absorb external shocks.
Global institutions broadly acknowledged Indonesia’s ability to sustain growth momentum without placing excessive strain on fiscal policy.
The World Bank also indicated interest in exploring potential strategic investment cooperation with Indonesia.
The potential collaboration includes support for long-term development, poverty alleviation programs, and financing for national strategic projects. Purbaya said the institution has begun exploring partnership opportunities.
“The World Bank is even exploring forms of cooperation that are mutually beneficial between us,” he added.
Purbaya pointed to stronger underlying economic momentum, with Indonesia’s growth projected to reach 5.5% to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2026, with potential to exceed that range.
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