Jakarta. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa says the rupiah could strengthen toward Rp 15,000 per US dollar as the government rolls out tighter export foreign exchange retention rules, intervenes in the bond market, and raises funds through global bond issuance.

Speaking at the Jogja Financial Festival 2026, Purbaya dismissed concerns that the rupiah could spiral into a crisis similar to the 1998 Asian financial meltdown, saying a significant influx of export dollars would begin entering the domestic financial system starting in June.

“People should not worry that the exchange rate will collapse like in 1998. Starting in June, there will be a significant supply of dollars entering our economy. The rupiah will strengthen,” Purbaya said.

The rupiah, however, remained under pressure on Friday, weakening 0.28% to Rp 17,716 per dollar at the close of trading, compared with Rp 17,667 a day earlier.

Purbaya even urged foreign exchange market players holding US dollars to start selling their positions, saying the government would continue pushing for a stronger rupiah.

“We will push the rupiah toward Rp 15,000,” he said.

Starting June 1, the government is implementing stricter foreign exchange retention rules for mining export proceeds, or DHE SDA.

Under the new rule, exporters of natural resources must repatriate 100% of their export earnings and place the funds in state-owned banks for at least 12 months. Oil and gas exporters are required to retain 30% of proceeds domestically for a minimum of three months. Companies may still use up to half of the retained funds for operational purposes if converted into rupiah.

Jakarta is also offering more flexibility to mining companies operating under bilateral trade agreements, allowing them to keep export earnings in non-state banks. Chief Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto has said mining exports destined for the United States would qualify for the exemption, while Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo indicated that American banks could participate in the retention scheme.

Purbaya said the government found that a large portion of export proceeds entering Indonesia was quickly transferred offshore through domestic banks, draining dollar liquidity from the local market.

“After reviewing the flows, the president concluded that much of the money coming into Indonesia was rapidly moved overseas again, including to Singapore, leaving domestic dollar supply depleted,” he said.

Beyond the DHE SDA policy, the government has also stepped into the bond market to prevent yields from rising too sharply and triggering foreign capital outflows.

“We are helping stabilize the exchange rate from the government side. We entered the bond market so yields would not rise too high. That means foreign investors are not forced to leave Indonesia due to losses,” Purbaya said.

According to him, foreign investors have started returning to Indonesia’s bond market, both in the secondary and primary markets, with inflows reaching nearly Rp 2 trillion.

Purbaya also pointed to strong demand for Indonesia’s latest global bond issuance as a sign that international investor confidence in Southeast Asia’s largest economy remains intact despite global volatility.

The government this week issued around $3.4 billion worth of global bonds denominated in US dollars and euros, consisting of roughly $2 billion in dollar bonds and €1.25 billion in euro bonds.

“If those funds enter our economy next week, that will add more dollar supply to the domestic market. So again, I stress that the rupiah will strengthen,” he said.

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