Jakarta. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued a cautionary alert to the public regarding heavy rainfall until March 8, particularly in the Greater Jakarta region.

The Greater Jakarta region, which includes Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi, has experienced a rise in rainfall since Feb. 27, linked to the presence of the equatorial Rossby wave west of Java and an escalation in wind speed around the Bangka Belitung Islands and the Karimata Strait. This weather scenario has led to a pattern of deceleration, convergence, and wind bending in the western Java region, according to BMKG.

"BMKG continues to monitor the situation of extreme weather, which may persist until March 8 due to the activity of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently entering phase three in the eastern Indian Ocean, and is predicted to move across Indonesia from west to east," stated BMKG on Friday.

In the Greater Jakarta region, BMKG anticipates predominantly light rainfall with occasional lightning or strong winds over the coming week.

BMKG's Chief, Dwikorita Karnawati, foresees extreme weather during the transitional season period, extending until April 2024.

"During the transitional period, the public needs to increase awareness and early anticipation for the potential of extreme weather, such as heavy rainfall in a short duration, accompanied by lightning, strong winds, tornadoes, and hail phenomena," said Dwikorita in a recent statement in Jakarta.

Based on BMKG's atmospheric dynamics analysis, the peak of the rainy season has passed in various Indonesian regions, especially in the southern part. This signals the commencement of the transitional season from March to April.

Characteristic of this transitional season is the occurrence of rainfall typically in the afternoon until evening, following warm and sunny conditions in the morning until noon.

This atmospheric condition is a result of significant sunlight received in the morning until noon, triggering the convection process, lifting air masses from the Earth's surface into the atmosphere, and leading to cloud formation.

According to Dwikorita, rainfall during this period tends to be uneven with moderate to heavy intensity in a short duration. If atmospheric conditions become unstable, the potential for the formation of convective clouds, such as cumulonimbus clouds (CB), increases.

"CB clouds are closely related to the potential for lightning, strong winds, tornadoes, and even hail. They look like cauliflower, with an ashy color and clear edges," she added.

Dwikorita emphasized that heavy rainfall is a cause for concern as it is one of the triggers for hydrometeorological disasters, such as flash floods and landslides. "Therefore, to people living in hilly areas prone to landslides, we also urge caution and vigilance," she concluded.