Jakarta/Yogyakarta/Bali. Travelers across Indonesia are facing a week of disruptive weather, with heavy rain forecast in Yogyakarta, intermittent showers in Jakarta, and the highest-level weather warning now in force across much of Bali, where flooding has swept parts of the resort island.

Weather agency BMKG has issued an early warning for potential extreme weather in Yogyakarta’s Special Region (DIY) from Feb. 23 to Feb. 28, citing moderate to heavy rainfall that could be accompanied by lightning and strong winds.

According to Warjono, head of the Yogyakarta Meteorological Station, the conditions are being driven by active atmospheric dynamics, including a cyclonic circulation over the Indian Ocean south of Java. This system is generating wind shear and convergence along the island, supported by warm sea surface temperatures of 25–30 degrees Celsius.

The situation is further intensified by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently in the maritime continent phase, which enhances rain cloud formation over Java. Authorities warn the weather could trigger flash floods, landslides, fallen trees, and wind-related damage across Yogyakarta City and the regencies of Sleman, Kulon Progo, Gunungkidul and Bantul.

In Jakarta, BMKG forecasts light to moderate rain on Tuesday, mainly from the afternoon into the evening. Western Jakarta is expected to turn rainy around midday, while Central, East and South Jakarta may see showers later in the day. North Jakarta and the Thousand Islands are also forecast to experience rain, with the possibility of thunderstorms at night — a point of concern for island-hopping tourists.

Conditions are more severe in Bali, where authorities have raised the alert to the highest level after days of relentless rain caused widespread flooding and heightened landslide risks. The Bali office of BMKG, BBMKG Region III Denpasar, warned that moderate to extreme rainfall is expected to continue from Feb. 24 to Feb. 26.

Forecaster Putu Agus Dedy Permana said red-level alerts — indicating very heavy to extreme rainfall — were issued for Badung, Tabanan, Gianyar, Klungkung, Karangasem and Denpasar, while Jembrana, Bangli and Buleleng were placed under high-risk warnings.

Strong winds of up to 45 kilometers per hour are also forecast in coastal and lowland areas, including Denpasar and Badung, while wave heights in southern Bali waters could reach up to four meters, creating dangerous conditions for small boats and marine tourism activities.

The alert pattern is expected to shift slightly on Wednesday, but high-risk conditions are forecast to persist through Thursday. Popular tourist destinations such as Kuta, Nusa Dua, Ubud, Tanah Lot, Sanur, Bedugul, Kintamani and Besakih are expected to see rain throughout the day, with nighttime thunderstorms along coastal areas.

BMKG is urging residents and visitors to closely monitor official forecasts, allow extra travel time, and reconsider outdoor and marine activities during periods of heavy rain, particularly in hilly areas and along the coast, as Indonesia enters one of the most active phases of its rainy season.

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