Jakarta. A recent survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia shows that Pramono Anung-Rano Karno leads in the Jakarta gubernatorial race ahead of the Nov. 27 election. However, they are in a close contest with Ridwan Kamil (RK)-Suswono, with only a small difference in electability.

According to Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, the difference in electability is statistically insignificant. He said that the gap is not large enough to be beyond the margin of error.

“Pramono-Rano and RK-Suswono are still not statistically safe, especially when considering the chance of winning in a single round. The difference between Pramono-Rano and RK-Suswono is still within the margin of error. To be considered significant, the gap should be over 5 percent,” Burhanuddin said during the survey’s release in Jakarta on Friday.

The survey, conducted with two different methods, face-to-face and via phone, captures the ongoing race. The face-to-face survey took place from Oct, 30 to Nov, 8, with 1,600 respondents from Jakarta, excluding the Thousand Islands Administration. This method used multistage random sampling with a margin of error of ±2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

The phone survey was conducted from Nov. 15 to 21, with 1,229 respondents and a margin of error of ±2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

In the face-to-face survey, Pramono-Rano led with 42.9 percent, followed by RK-Suswono at 39.2 percent, and independent candidates pair Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana trailing with 5.1 percent. Additionally, 12.8 percent of respondents were undecided.

In the phone survey, Pramono-Rano maintained a slight lead at 42.1 percent, while RK-Suswono stood at 40.5 percent, and Dharma-Kun again came last at 4.8 percent. A slightly higher portion of undecided respondents was recorded at 12.6 percent.

The surveys also recorded a significant portion of undecided voters, with 25.1 percent indicating they might change their votes. Burhanuddin said that the final outcome of the Jakarta gubernatorial election could hinge on these undecided voters in the last week before voting.

Separately, Gerindra politician Maruarar Sirait (Ara) foresees a second-round runoff for the Jakarta election in 2024. According to Ara, no candidate has reached 50 percent electability, suggesting that a second round is imminent based on current survey results.

“I predict a second round. Mark my words, there will be a second round, and Ridwan Kamil will win,” Ara said Friday.

He explained that RK-Suswono would likely win in the second round due to increased support from former President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.

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