Jakarta. Indonesia’s retail industry is bracing for a surge in transactions during the Idulfitri holiday period, with sales expected to exceed Rp 50 trillion ($3 billion) as consumer spending accelerates on the back of mass travel and holiday bonuses.

The Indonesian Retailers and Shopping Center Tenants Association, or Hippindo, projects retail sales during the Eid season will rise by 10% to 15% from the same period last year, reflecting stronger consumer confidence and increased cash circulation in regional economies.

“During Eid, shopping interest is very high, not only in Jakarta, but also in popular travel destinations across the regions,” said Fetty Kwartati, Hippindo’s deputy chair, on Friday. “When people receive their holiday allowances, spending typically increases.”

Indonesia’s annual Eid exodus, known locally as mudik, is a major driver of seasonal consumption, shifting spending away from large urban centers toward regional cities and tourist hubs. This year’s optimism is underpinned by the distribution of the mandatory religious holiday allowance, or Tunjangan Hari Raya (THR), which boosts household purchasing power and fuels demand for food, beverages, fashion and lifestyle products.

Fetty said transaction growth is also supported by coordinated efforts between the government and businesses to promote domestic consumption, including nationwide shopping campaigns encouraging the purchase of locally made products.

To meet the anticipated rise in demand, retailers have mobilized around 800 brands operating more than 80,000 outlets across 24 provinces nationwide. Food and beverage retailers, along with lifestyle and daily necessities, are expected to remain the main contributors to sales growth during the Eid holiday period.

Indonesia’s retail sector is closely watched as a barometer of domestic demand, which accounts for more than half of the country’s economic output. Strong Eid spending could provide a short-term boost to growth momentum in the first half of the year.

The government is also rolling out a Rp 911.16 billion ($54.26 million) transport discount program during the Ramadan–Eid period to manage peak travel demand and support consumption, Chief Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said earlier this week.

Ramadan is set to begin on the evening of Feb. 18, with Eid expected to fall on March 19. Government data show that 154.62 million people traveled during the 2025 Eid period, compared with 110.43 million during the year-end holiday season, underscoring the scale of the annual migration and its impact on consumption.