New members of the House of Representatives (DPR) and the Regional Representative Council (DPD) were sworn in on October 1 and in a few weeks, Prabowo Subianto will take the oath as Indonesia’s eighth president.

The voter turnout of over 81 percent in this year’s legislative and presidential elections -- similar to that of 2019 and higher than the 75 percent turnout in 2014 -- reflects the people’s confidence in the democratic process and their high hopes for a better Indonesia under the incoming president and newly elected legislators.

Looking back over the past decade, Indonesia has made significant strides under the leadership of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. During his two terms, the country enjoyed relative economic and political stability, except for the brief economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely impacted the economy and people’s livelihoods. Jokowi’s signature initiative, infrastructure development, has transformed Indonesia, improving connectivity even in the most remote regions.

President Jokowi is set to conclude his presidency on a high note. A survey by Kompas in June 2024 showed that 75.6 percent of respondents were satisfied with his administration’s performance. Specifically, 85.5 percent expressed satisfaction with political and security matters, 82 percent were pleased with social welfare policies, and 65.5 percent approved of the economy.

However, Jokowi’s administration has also faced criticism in some areas. His inner circle has been accused of attempting to co-opt opposition parties, and there have been thinly veiled efforts to stifle dissent from opposition figures, university academics, and independent media.

Several research institutions and NGOs have noted a regression in Indonesia’s democracy under Jokowi. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) gave Indonesia a Democracy Index score of 6.71 and a global ranking of 54 in 2022, classifying it as a "flawed democracy." Similarly, Amnesty International recently reported a decline in civil liberties, citing “attacks, threats, and criminalization of free speech, press freedom, and the right to assembly and association.”

The report highlighted 203 criminal cases against critics of public officials or government institutions from October 2014 to March 2019, as well as 332 blasphemy and hate speech cases and 328 incidents of physical or digital attacks on journalists, activists, students, and demonstrators between 2019 and 2022.

Although Indonesia continues to hold periodic elections, some authoritarian tendencies have emerged, such as media monopolization, restrictions on civil society, and manipulation of state institutions and resources -- practices reminiscent of autocratic regimes like Venezuela, Belarus, or Russia.

Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, described this phenomenon in his article The Age of Zombie Democracies for Foreign Affairs. He wrote that a growing number of autocrats have started to implement enhanced repression by holding periodic elections but “do not even pretend that these empty rituals are free or fair,” which resulted in the so-called “zombie democracies, the living dead of electoral political systems, recognizable in form but devoid of any substance.”

Ahead of the presidential transition, several troubling anti-democratic precedents have surfaced. These include political parties attempting to manipulate election laws to secure local victories through sole candidate facing empty ballots or “puppet” opponents, as well as the removal of elected DPR members to replace them with family members of party leaders or wealthy figures -- moves that may involve undisclosed financial transactions. Additionally, attempts to delegitimize Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka by attacking his family’s political moves or business dealings have raised concerns.

As a developing country with a tight budget, Indonesia will rely heavily on foreign investment to drive growth. A study co-authored by an MIT economist shows that democracies experience significant economic growth, with a 20 percent increase in GDP over 25 years compared to authoritarian regimes. Kicking off a new administration with petty, undemocratic politics could deter the foreign investment that Indonesia urgently needs.

Our advice to President-elect Prabowo Subianto is clear: avoid divisive politics and return to civility. Start by pursuing political reconciliation, as President Jokowi did at the start of his second term by embracing former opponents and their supporters. Let President Jokowi enjoy his post-presidential life in peace, and treat Gibran Rakabuming Raka as a "normal" vice president, whose role is largely ceremonial. Above all, ignore any suggestions of replacing him.

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Lely Arrianie is a professor in the LSPR doctoral program who teaches political communications. Didin Nasirudin, ST, M.IKOM, is the managing director of Bening Communication.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors.

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