Jakarta. Indonesia is experiencing its fastest rise in wildfire hotspots in more than a decade, with the number of detected hotspots already surpassing levels seen during previous El Niño events, prompting authorities to warn of fire risks in the coming months.

The country's meteorology agency, BMKG, recorded 5,019 wildfire hotspots from January to mid-July 2026, a pace of increase that exceeds comparable periods during the El Niño years of 2015, 2019 and 2023, according to the agency.

"The cumulative hotspot graph shows that the number of hotspots from January to mid-July 2026 has increased more rapidly than during previous El Niño years, namely 2015, 2019 and 2023," BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said at a press conference in Jakarta on Thursday, according to state news agency Antara.

The provinces of West Kalimantan, South Papua and Riau currently account for the highest concentration of hotspots. In West Kalimantan, haze from forest and land fires has already begun affecting several areas in recent days.

BMKG projects the highest wildfire risk will occur between August and September, when dry conditions are expected to intensify. The agency identified Riau, South Sumatra, Jambi, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan and South Papua as priority areas facing elevated fire risks.

Wildfire threats are also expected to increase gradually across parts of Sulawesi between September and October.

The agency urged authorities to strengthen surveillance and field monitoring during the critical period from July through the end of September to prevent fires from spreading and minimize environmental damage.

BMKG also warned that the current El Niño event is expected to persist into early 2027, with its peak projected between December 2026 and January 2027. Climate models indicate the event could strengthen beyond the "strong" category, increasing the likelihood of prolonged drought across Indonesia.

As of late July, 509 seasonal zones, representing about 54.5% of Indonesia, had officially entered the dry season. Dry conditions have spread across Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Kalimantan, much of Sulawesi, Maluku and parts of Papua.

Many of these regions have recorded prolonged periods without rainfall, placing them under moderate to extreme drought conditions.

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically reduces rainfall across Indonesia, drying forests and peatlands and making them highly susceptible to fire.

During the strong 2015 El Niño, Indonesia suffered one of its worst wildfire disasters on record, with widespread forest and peatland fires producing transboundary haze that affected neighboring countries, triggered a public health crisis and caused billions of dollars in economic losses.

With hotspot growth in 2026 outpacing that of 2015, BMKG said close coordination between government agencies, wildfire task forces and local communities will be critical to preventing another major ecological disaster through early detection and strict enforcement against illegal land burning.