In August 2026, Indonesia's environment minister spoke at a meeting of environment ministers from BRICS countries in New Delhi. BRICS is a group of major developing countries working together, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and newer members such as Indonesia.

The minister said preparing for climate change is not a small issue, and wealthy nations, still the largest source of greenhouse gases, should not dodge their share of responsibility. He pointed to Indonesia's new 2026-2030 climate adaptation plan and to old local traditions, such as a centuries-old irrigation system in Bali and community rules for land and fishing.

A few days earlier, senior officials from BRICS countries had already met in New Delhi to plan this year's priorities. Under India's leadership, they agreed fighting forest fires and preparing for disasters would be one of four main BRICS topics this year.

That was a strong message, but a hard one to back up this year. While Indonesia spoke about shared responsibility abroad, fires burned across its own land on a scale it has not fully faced. If it wants BRICS to treat forest fires as a shared problem, it needs real progress at home first.

The scale is large. These figures come from our latest study at the Center of Economic and Law Studies. From January to August 2026 alone, we estimate the combined economic and health cost of the fires at roughly $2.5 to $7.9 billion, close to half of Central Kalimantan province's expected yearly output, and excluding any further spread later in the year.

Fire cases rose 366% in the first half of 2026 compared with 2025. By August, over 202,000 hectares had burned nationwide, an area larger than London. West Kalimantan alone lost about 38,300 hectares, nearly one and a half times the next worst province and over fifteen times the least affected.

The map has shifted too. Past crises, in 2015 and 2019, mostly burned peatland, a waterlogged, carbon-rich soil in Sumatra and Kalimantan that catches fire easily and smokes heavily. This year South Papua, in eastern Indonesia, has the second largest burned area, linked to land clearing for government farming and fuel-crop projects. Provinces with little peatland, including East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Java, are now badly hit too.

Using a method from a 2021 scientific study and World Bank data from past crises, we put direct economic loss so far in 2026 at about $1.9 billion, covering lost trade, farming, and food and drink activity, not just burned land. West Kalimantan lost the most, about $365 million, followed by Papua at $276 million and East Nusa Tenggara at $180 million, showing the damage has reached well beyond Kalimantan and Sumatra.

Health costs make the case for outside help even clearer, since they show how far this damage travels. The provinces with the highest health costs are not those with the most burned land, but the most people: West Nusa Tenggara, East Java, and Riau carry the largest burdens, at roughly $1.2 billion, $875 million, and $661 million.

Counting only people formally diagnosed with a respiratory infection, the toll reaches 1.78 million people and about $625 million in health costs, split between roughly $457 million in direct medical care and $169 million in lost income. Counting people with symptoms who never reach a clinic, whether from distance or cost, the toll rises to 17.4 million people and about $6 billion, equal to 67.6% of Indonesia's entire 2026 health budget.

Tax revenue suffers too. Fires are estimated to have wiped out about $17.3 million in local tax income nationwide, hitting East Java hardest at about $6 million, then West Kalimantan at $1.85 million, as losses spread through timber, paper, and furniture industries.

This is exactly the cross-border damage BRICS says it wants to tackle together. A real forest-fire priority, not just a meeting statement, could mean shared early warning systems, satellites watching for fires across a wider area, and firefighting planes and teams ready before each season starts, plus funding aimed directly at restoring burned land instead of leaving the cost to stretched local governments. Smoke respects no border, the same problem that has long caused tension between Indonesia and its neighbors.

None of this replaces action at home. Four steps deserve urgency: formally declare the 2026 fires a national disaster, since local governments lack money and authority under a system where most budget decisions are still made centrally; build proper shelters with a clear plan to move sick or vulnerable people to medical care quickly; review every palm oil and mining permit, including government-priority projects, with real penalties such as canceling permits for companies found responsible, and make results public; and set up one dedicated team to lead recovery of burned land, filling a gap since the government agency responsible for this work was shut down in 2024.

Indonesia told the world, at the BRICS table, that preparing for climate change matters and this burden should be shared. Losses that could reach nearly $8 billion, and 17.4 million people breathing polluted air, are reasons that message matters, and reasons it now needs to be matched by what Indonesia does within its own borders.

----

The opinion article is authored by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Executive Director of CELIOS, and Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of China-Indonesia Desk, CELIOS.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors.

Add as a preferred source on Google +