Indonesia’s El Nino Drought Leaves One Region Without Rain for 131 Days
Jakarta. A strong El Nino is driving widespread drought across Indonesia, with Bantul Regency in Yogyakarta recording the country’s longest dry spell at 131 consecutive days without rain, the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said Tuesday.
BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said extreme meteorological drought had spread to several parts of the country, with a number of monitoring stations recording more than 60 consecutive days without rain.
“Many monitoring locations have reported more than 60 consecutive days without rain. The longest period is currently in Bantul, at 131 days,” Ardhasena said at a press conference in Jakarta on Tuesday.
She attributed the prolonged dry conditions to a very strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region recorded an anomaly of 2.63 degrees Celsius during the July-September 2026 period.
The climate phenomenon has also altered seasonal patterns across Indonesia. A total of 556 seasonal zones (ZOM), or 61.91% of the country’s land area, are still experiencing a prolonged dry season.
The drought has also affected areas that are normally wet throughout the year. Of 110 ZOMs classified as wet year-round, 98 have experienced dry conditions, according to BMKG.
El Nino to Persist Into Early 2027
BMKG expects El Nino conditions to persist through the first quarter of 2027, meaning the transition to the rainy season will occur at different times across the country.
In November, 185 ZOMs covering 24.66% of Indonesia’s land area are forecast to enter the rainy season. The figure is expected to rise to 266 ZOMs in December, covering 17.31% of the land area.
As rainfall gradually returns, BMKG expects extreme drought conditions to ease. However, some areas could remain dry for longer because rainfall will not arrive simultaneously across the country.
Rainfall Expected to Remain Normal
Despite the delayed onset of the rainy season, BMKG forecasts accumulated rainfall in most parts of Indonesia to remain within the normal range.
About 510 ZOMs, or 69.76% of the country’s land area, are expected to receive normal levels of accumulated rainfall.
The peak of the rainy season is also expected to occur in stages. BMKG forecasts the peak in 155 ZOMs covering 36.94% of the land area in December 2026, followed by 162 ZOMs covering 25.68% in January 2027 and 190 ZOMs covering 16.79% in February.
The 131-day dry spell in Bantul illustrates the severity of the current drought, but conditions extend far beyond the regency. With dry conditions affecting more than half of Indonesia’s seasonal zones, including areas normally classified as wet year-round, the effects of the strong El Nino are being felt across much of the country.
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