Jakarta. Almost everyone in Indonesia has their eyes glued on the upcoming election that will decide who will lead the country’s largest city Jakarta for the next five years.

The government is planning to relocate the capital to Nusantara --  a city to be entirely made from scratch that lies in East Kalimantan. Construction work in this forested city is in progress as more projects break ground. Although Jakarta is losing its capital status, this special region still remains the barometer of national politics.

Three pairs of candidates are set to take part in the Jakarta gubernatorial race. Former West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil paired with Ex-Agriculture Minister Suswono with the endorsement of 14 political parties that form the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) Plus. This giant coalition secured 83.5 percent of the valid votes for the Jakarta legislators. Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung is also a Jakarta governor hopeful and is working with actor-turned-politician Rano Karno in this race after being backed by the PDI-P and Hanura parties. This coalition of two parties secured 14.43 percent of the valid votes. Political parties can endorse a governor pair if they secure at least 7.5 percent of the valid votes.

This year’s election also sees an independent candidate pair -- Dharma Pongrekun and his ticket mate Kun Wardhana in the mix. People can compete in the Jakarta gubernatorial election without having the backing of political parties --or independently -- as long as they have collected the signatures of 618,968 ID card holders. Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardhana reported that they had gotten 677,065 signatures.

Anyone who wins the election will lead a province that boasts 11.35 million people in population size in its quest to be a global city. Jakarta is a strategic region. It has the biggest budget out of all 38 provinces, standing at a whopping Rp 85.1 trillion ($5.5 billion). So who deserves to win as Jakarta governor and deputy governor?

Rational Voters

As many as 8.2 million people are eligible to cast their votes for the Jakarta election. According to Litbang Kompas researcher Yohan Wahyu, Jakartan voters tend to be rational. In other words, they will consider what sort of programs the candidates will offer.

“Concrete programs are set to be a key factor in winning the Jakarta election voters’ hearts,” Yohan said. 

This year’s race “has also become more interesting” as popular picks former Jakarta governors Anies Baswedan and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) would not run for reelection, Yohan said. Candidates are also set to fight to win Anies’ supporters. 

Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) researcher Saidiman Ahmad said the rational voters would also take into account the candidates’ track record. The 2024 election is also set to be free from identity politics that took place back in the 2017 governor race as Anies and Ahok --who were competing against one another at the time-- would not return as candidates. 

“All three pairs in the 2024 election are Muslims so no one can make religion a selling point, unlike the previous election. That is why the debates and campaign will really become a deciding factor,” he said. 

According to Saidiman, Ridwan Kamil-Suswono is currently in the lead, but there is still a chance for Pramono Anung-Rano Karno to secure victory as long as their campaign is effective. Competition will heat up as the pairs promote their programs to the public. 

What Do They Offer? 
The campaign season for the 2024 Jakarta election only starts on Sep. 25 and will go on until Nov. 23. However, the candidates have already begun dropping hints on what they would do should they get elected. They are also actively traveling around Jakarta to learn more about the people’s aspirations.

The Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair vow to set aside between Rp 100 million and Rp 200 million for every urban hamlet (RW). The money will go into supporting local communities and has a flexible scheme so it may be used for infrastructure development or capital for the locals. Another signature policy is mobile psychological counseling, car-free days in every subdistrict, senior citizen program, zero-interest financing, and festivals to replace mass street fighting. 

Pramono Anung-Rano Karno’s programs tend to focus on the lower middle class. This includes reactivating the community hall so locals can rent the place to hold activities at an affordable price. The pair also promised to build a special flyover dedicated to motorbikes and bicycles. They also plan on installing CCTV cameras in every neighborhood and extending the LRT-MRT tracks.

Dharma Pongrekun has come up with what they call “Save Families’ Lives”. This program aims to create a safe living environment for Jakartans. The pair also want to give Persija Jakarta -- the city’s football club -- free access to the Jakarta International Stadium (JIS). Other plans also include redesigning the city and improving the quality of life. 

Jakarta’s Many Challenges
The 2024 Law on Jakarta states that the metropolis shall become a province-level autonomous region that serves as the country’s national economic center and global city. Despite being the country’s most developed region, Jakarta is still facing many problems that the next governor has to tackle. 

According to Sarman Simanjorang, a deputy chairman at the country’s largest business lobby Kadin, candidates need to focus on job creation, staple food price stability, and empowerment of local micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The next Jakarta governor must also have concrete solutions for the city’s many challenges, including the never-ending traffic and flood problems. Whoever wins the election also needs to bring down the poverty rate. Despite having been the country’s capital, Sarman said many Jakartans were still living below the poverty line. There is also a need to improve the quality of Jakarta’s human capital as technology advances. 

With such a large budget in hand, the elected Jakarta governor must be wise with their spending to make sure he delivers on what he has promised in his campaigns, according to urban development expert Yayat Supriatna. 

“Jakarta seeks to be a global city. But for that to happen, we would need innovations in the government budget management. So the programs that [the governor hopefuls] offer are not repeating unfulfilled past promises such as addressing the flood problem,” Yayat said.

Likewise, political analyst Ujang Komarudin reminded candidates to not only focus on the classic problems of flood and traffic jams. The candidates should also pay attention to “issues that directly impact the Jakartans’ well-being”. Despite losing its capital status, Jakarta will remain a magnet for newcomers from all over the country. However, many of these newcomers are poorly skilled. 

“Unemployment and the lack of job opportunities in their hometowns cause people to move to Jakarta. But when they arrive, these people lack the necessary skills, so many of them work as street vendors, buskers, scavengers, and some even become homeless,” Ujang said. 

Investing in Jakarta
Kadin’s Sarman also said Jakarta would remain attractive to both domestic and foreign investors despite the capital relocation. Jakarta would also continue to be a major investment destination in the country.

Government data showed Jakarta was the most popular investment destination for domestic investors in the first half of 2024. Jakarta recorded Rp 69.3 trillion worth of investments from domestic investors, equivalent to 17 percent of the domestic investments that the country posted over the said period. Foreign investors also put in around $3.4 billion in the first half. This made Jakarta the third most popular investment destination among international investors in Indonesia, just behind West Java ($5.3 billion) and Central Sulawesi ($3.9 billion). 

According to Yayat, a city with a low corruption index will likely be more attractive in investors’ eyes. Investors favor governors who offer great certainty in their leadership, efficient procedures, and cost transparency. 

“As long as the city’s corruption index remains high, the problems will never go away. We need to build a bureaucratic ecosystem that can give [investors] that guarantee. Jakarta needs investment so it absorbs more workers. Investment can also improve the quality of the city’s human capital,” Yayat said.

Lessons from Past Leaders
As voting time nears, candidates have also approached Jakarta’s past leaders. Both Pramono Anung and Ridwan Kamil pairs have met with the 2007-2012 Jakarta Governor Fauzi Bowo with the meetings taking place separately.  They have also met with Former Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso, who assumed the post in 1997-2007 -- also at separate times. Both candidates have also expressed their intent to meet Anies Baswedan.

Pramono-Rano team spokesperson Aris Setiawan Jodi said the pair sought to work with everyone, including former Jakarta leaders, among others to make sure that the programs -- particularly those related to public transport -- could be improved. Aris admitted that five years would not be enough to develop Jakarta, highlighting Pramono-Rano’s intentions to carry on good existing policies and improve those that need fixing.

“Such as the JakLingko and the Rp 0 transport tariff that Anies have started, we are planning to expand its reach. We will also improve Sutiyoso’s TransJakarta program -- which the succeeding governors like Jokowi, Ahok, Anies have also polished -- by shortening the wait time between the buses,” Aris said.

Ridwan Kamil-Suswono campaign’s spokesperson Muhammad Kholid said that his side planned on accelerating Jakarta’s development by improving existing programs and thus the meeting with past leaders. During the pair’s meeting with Sutiyoso, the former Jakarta governor shared his experience in addressing East Jakarta’s flooding and developing the Transjakarta system. 

“We [Ridwan Kamil-Suswono] want Jakarta to be a place of opportunities, particularly for the young generation. Ridwan Kamil also want to make Jakarta a creative hub so youth can make creations and innovate particularly in the creative economy sector that have huge potential in creating job opportunities,” Kholid said. 

Djayadi Hanan, the executive director of Lembaga Survei Indonesia, said that there were two main intentions behind the meetings with former governors. First, these meetings are a form of respect to the seniors. Second is that the candidates were hoping for an electability boost from those meetings.

“But they would get a bigger boost if they were to meet Ahok or Anies. Ahok is synonymous with PDI-P who is backing the Pramono-Rano pair. But what would be interesting is what stance would Anies’ supporters take. Survey shows that Anies still has a quite strong supporter base at between 35-40 percent,” Djayadi said. 

A Two-Round Election?
Jakartans are set to cast their votes on Nov. 27. Candidates must earn over 50 percent of the votes to win the election. If no one gets half of the votes, Jakarta will have to hold another round of election. Survey data showed Ridwan Kamil-Suswono were still in the lead as of August. But things might change if Pramono-Rano could gain a strong backing, including that from Anies Baswedan.

“With three candidates competing, the chance for a one-round election becomes slimmer,” Djayadi said.

“If Pramono-Rano gets endorsed by major figures like Anies, this will spice things up. If not, Ridwan Kamil-Suswono will maintain their trend.”

Jakarta’s social dynamics are also set to affect the candidates’ electability. Sundanese, who make up 13-15 percent of Jakarta’s population, also tend to support Ridwan Kamil. The Betawi people, who account for 28 percent of the city’s population, will likely support Rano Karno who has been synonymous with Batavian culture, mainly thanks to the popular sitcom “Si Doel Anak Betawi” that he used to star in.

“We cannot take the Pramono-Rano pair lightly. People in Java tend to support Ridwan Kamil through the PKS-backed Suswono. Pramono has a strong base. The main competition is between Ridwan Kamil-Suswono versus Pramono Anung-Rano Karno,” Djayadi said.

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Anisa Fauziah, Monique Handa Safira, Theresia Silalahi, Yustinus Patris Paat, and Jayanty Nada Shofa contributed to the story.