Jakarta. With poll leader Anies Baswedan absent from the Jakarta gubernatorial race, the competition is now wide open for two major candidates, both vying to capture his support base.

Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung and former West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil are now the primary contenders for the governorship, each focusing on securing the backing of Anies' former supporters.

Anies, who served as Jakarta's governor from 2017 to 2022, saw his reelection hopes dashed when no political party offered him a nomination. He also missed the deadline to register as an independent candidate.

An earlier survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) indicated that Anies was the leading candidate, especially popular among members of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), with an approval rating of 94 percent. However, even PKS eventually withdrew its support, joining the majority of political parties that endorsed Ridwan.

"The will of the people has been undermined by political elites," SMRC researcher Saidiman Ahmad said during a discussion at B-Universe Media Holdings in Pantai Indah Kapuk 2, Tangerang on Monday.

Saidiman noted that 73 percent of National Awakening Party (PKB) voters in Jakarta said they would have voted for Anies had he been able to run, while 76 percent of Jakarta voters from the National Democratic Party (Nasdem) expressed the same sentiment.

In contrast, Ridwan enjoys strong support primarily from the Golkar Party, of which he is a member, with 71 percent backing him from within the party.

"Anies' supporters aren’t generally aligned with political parties. They were drawn more to his public image," Saidiman explained.

Anies has built a strong base among conservative Muslims, but his appeal also extends to those critical of President Joko Widodo's administration.

"Ridwan Kamil shares more ideological alignment with Anies," Saidiman noted. However, Ridwan's nomination by the majority of political parties -- many perceived as representatives of the central government and incoming president Prabowo Subianto -- complicates his positioning.

The widespread backing of Ridwan is widely seen as a strategic effort to prevent Anies from contesting the election.

"Anies' supporters who are critical of the government could shift their allegiance to Pramono Anung and his running mate Rano Karno," Saidiman suggested.

Since all candidates are Muslim, religion is unlikely to play a decisive role in the upcoming election. However, Saidiman argued that Ridwan is still more favored among conservative Muslims than Pramono, making him the stronger contender for Anies' voter base.

"Pramono cannot be considered an opposition figure, given his current role as cabinet secretary and close ties with President Joko Widodo," Saidiman concluded.