Jakarta. A new survey from Poltracking Indonesia indicates that the race for Jakarta’s gubernatorial seat is heating up, with Ridwan Kamil and his running mate Suswono leading the pack with a notable electability rate of 47.5 percent, while Pramono Anung and Rano Karno trail at 31.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the third candidate pair, Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana, trail at 5.1 percent. A notable 15.9 percent of respondents were undecided or did not answer.

Despite Ridwan Kamil’s 16 percent lead over Pramono Anung, Poltracking Indonesia Executive Director Hanta Yuda AR emphasized that the race remains fluid as neither candidate has secured the 50 percent plus one majority required to win outright.

"The 16 percent gap seems significant if the election were a week away. However, with two months remaining, this margin is still subject to change, making the race nearly competitive," Hanta said during an online presentation of the survey results on Friday.

Pramono Confident of Growing Popularity Ahead of Jakarta Gubernatorial Election

Hanta also raised the possibility of a two-round election if the electability of both Ridwan Kamil and Pramono Anung declines while Dharma Pongrekun's numbers rise.

"If Dharma-Kun’s support grows to double digits and the gap between Ridwan Kamil and Pramono Anung narrows, a second round is highly likely," Hanta added.

However, he also noted that if the election were held today, Ridwan Kamil and Suswono would have the potential to win in a single round, albeit without crossing the 50 percent threshold just yet.

The survey, conducted from September 9-15, 2024, involved 1,200 Jakarta residents and had a margin of error of +/- 2.9% with a confidence level of 95%. Respondents were selected through stratified multistage random sampling, with face-to-face interviews conducted using app-based technology.

In separate polling for gubernatorial candidates without their running mates, Ridwan Kamil remained in the lead with 48.9 percent, followed by Pramono Anung at 22.1 percent and Dharma Pongrekun at 4.1 percent. 

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