Jakarta. Indonesia could face increased risks from a potentially strong El Niño in 2026, with impacts extending beyond drought to water supplies, agriculture and livelihoods.

Java, Bali and the Nusa Tenggara islands are among the areas considered more vulnerable because of their monsoonal climate, where rainy and dry seasons are more clearly defined. A prolonged dry season could put additional pressure on water availability and agricultural activities.

Emilya Nurjani, a lecturer at the Department of Environmental Geography at Gadjah Mada University (UGM), said El Niño would not affect all parts of Indonesia equally, as regional geography and climate patterns influence vulnerability.

“Monsoonal regions include parts of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Sulawesi, and southern Indonesia. Meanwhile, areas with equatorial rainfall patterns have different characteristics in responding to dry periods,” Emilya said on Monday.

The warning comes as El Niño could strengthen in the coming months. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) estimates that the probability of the phenomenon reaching an “extremely strong” category could rise to 75% between August and October.

The risk could increase further if El Niño develops alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can also contribute to reduced rainfall in Indonesia. Emilya said the two phenomena occurring simultaneously could reinforce the decline in rainfall across parts of the country.

Beyond water shortages, prolonged dry conditions could disrupt irrigation, alter planting schedules, reduce agricultural productivity and increase the risk of crop failure. This could put additional pressure on communities that depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.

The drought has already begun affecting agriculture. As of July 10, around 30,379 hectares (75,070 acres) of rice fields nationwide had been hit by drought, with 12,207 hectares suffering complete crop failure, according to the Agriculture Ministry

Karst areas could face greater challenges because their geological characteristics can limit water availability, while urban areas and intensive agricultural zones may experience increased competition for water between household needs and food production.

Emilya warned that the consequences could extend well beyond the initial climate event.

“If these conditions persist for a long period, what initially begins as a weather and climate issue can develop into a social, economic and regional resilience issue,” she said.

The government is therefore urged to strengthen climate monitoring and water resource management, particularly in vulnerable monsoonal regions such as Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, to reduce the potential impacts of a prolonged dry season.

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