Bulog Says Rice Supply Safe Despite Strong El Niño Forecast
Jakarta State food procurement agency Bulog says national rice supplies remain secure despite a warning from weather agency BMKG of a potentially longer and drier season, adding that it will continue buying rice from farmers through the end of the year.
BMKG forecasts that the 2026 El Niño will persist into early 2027, with its intensity expected to range from strong to very strong. The peak of its impact is forecast for December 2026 to January 2027.
Bulog President Director Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani said the agency had procured 3.5 million metric tons of paddy as of early August.
“We have reported the procurement to the agriculture minister, the coordinating minister, and the president. We have now reached 87.4%, or 3.5 million tons,” Rizal said at Bulog’s headquarters in Jakarta on Monday.
Bulog’s rice stocks have since approached 5.4 million tons, he said. Including supplies held by hotels, restaurants, and catering businesses, as well as rice crops still in the fields, total national availability is estimated at 25 million to 26 million tons.
That compares with estimated national rice consumption of around 22 million tons, leaving Rizal confident that supplies will remain sufficient even if an El Niño weather pattern hits Indonesia.
“Despite the estimate of El Niño and other factors, we are confident that food supplies and stocks will remain secure and people’s needs will continue to be met,” he said. “We will even have stocks through March.”
Rizal acknowledged that rice production could decline as harvested acreage is expected to shrink over the next three months. However, he said higher yields from a government program distributing improved rice seeds could help offset the reduction.
Under the program, rice productivity is projected to rise from an average of 5-6 tons per hectare to around 10-12.8 tons per hectare across 1 million hectares, he said.
Bulog will also continue procuring paddy after reaching its 4 million-ton target, which is expected by the end of September.
“We assure the public, especially farmers, that there is no need to worry or hesitate. After we absorb 4 million tons by the end of September, we will continue procurement in October, November, December, and beyond,” Rizal said.
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