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CSIS Poll Shows Prabowo Leading, Ganjar Trails Anies by 6 Points

Iman Rahman Cahyadi
December 27, 2023 | 5:57 pm
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From left: Presidential candidates Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan pose for a photo after the presidential debate at the General Election Commission (KPU) building in Jakarta, Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)
From left: Presidential candidates Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan pose for a photo after the presidential debate at the General Election Commission (KPU) building in Jakarta, Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)

Jakarta. A recent survey published on Wednesday indicates Prabowo Subianto as the clear frontrunner in the upcoming February 14 presidential election, with Ganjar Pranowo now ranking third, trailing more than six points behind Anies Baswedan.

Prabowo, the current Defense Minister, has gained substantial momentum, increasingly perceived as a successor poised to continue President Joko Widodo's legacy. This perception was solidified when he named the president’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate in October.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) survey indicates that 43.7 percent of respondents favor Prabowo, 26.1 percent support Anies, and 19.4 percent back Ganjar. Nonetheless, 10.9 percent of respondents either remain undecided or choose not to disclose their preference.

Conducted after the presidential debate on December 12 but preceding the vice-presidential debate, the survey holds significant weight in its timing.

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"The debates can sway voters' decisions," said Arya Fernandes, Head of the Political and Social Department at CSIS.

He said 5.8 percent of respondents plan to decide after the debate. Additionally, 12.5 percent of the hesitant respondents aim to solidify their choice post-debate.

With two debates completed out of the scheduled five until February 10, the potential impact on voter sentiment remains substantial.

The CSIS survey involved 1,300 respondents aged 17 and above from 34 provinces, carrying a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

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