Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index opened lower on Friday as rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf rattled global markets, while investors also turned cautious ahead of the long Eid al-Fitr holiday.

The benchmark index slipped 24 points, or 0.32%, to 7,338 in morning trading, moving within a range of 7,332 to 7,348.

Trading volume reached 985 million shares with turnover totaling Rp 363.7 billion ($21.5 million) across more than 53,000 transactions. Decliners outnumbered gainers 257 to 156, while 189 stocks were unchanged.

Global markets remain under pressure as oil prices surged back toward $100 per barrel amid intensifying conflict involving Iran and threats to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn the energy spike could revive global stagflation risks and delay expectations for monetary easing.

Markets that previously anticipated two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year are now pricing in only about 20 bps of easing by the end of 2026.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, citing Goldman Sachs estimates, said US PCE inflation could reach around 2.9% by December 2026, with core inflation at roughly 2.4%, while US economic growth projections for 2026 have been lowered to about 2.2%.

“Historically, a 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to add about 0.2 percentage points to PCE inflation and reduce GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points,” Kiwoom wrote in a research note.

Wells Fargo also warned that the energy price surge could primarily slow consumption, although the US economy is now considered more resilient to oil shocks than in previous decades.

Meanwhile, Phintraco Sekuritas said the absence of de-escalation signals in the Persian Gulf has kept crude oil trading at elevated levels, with disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz showing no signs of ending.

“The decision by the International Energy Agency also signals high risks of oil supply disruptions and suggests the agency does not expect the war to end soon,” Phintraco Sekuritas said. The brokerage added that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the conflict could further increase inflation risks and weigh on global economic growth.

Domestically, Phintraco Sekuritas noted that the non-primary consumer goods sector posted the biggest decline in early trading, while transportation stocks recorded the strongest gains.

“The rise in crude oil prices increases concerns over inflation risks, a widening state budget deficit, and the possibility of a deficit in Indonesia’s oil and gas trade balance,” the firm said.

Investor sentiment was also affected by fiscal developments after the government began withdrawing part of Bank Indonesia’s surplus to the state treasury to help finance the state budget. About Rp 16 trillion has reportedly been transferred under the authority granted by Finance Ministry Regulation No. 115/2025.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa emphasized the withdrawal was only partial and coordinated with Bank Indonesia to maintain fiscal-monetary balance and financial system stability. However, Celios economist Bhima Yudhistira warned the move could unsettle investors. “It may be perceived as an intervention in the central bank and reflects growing fiscal pressure,” he said.

Kiwoom Sekuritas added that the JCI may struggle to stage a strong rebound amid persistent global uncertainties and the approaching Eid al-Fitr holiday. “Many investors are reducing portfolio positions to avoid potential market volatility while away for the holiday,” the brokerage said. Kiwoom identified the nearest support level at 7,334, warning that if it is breached, the index could retreat toward a lower support range of 7,156 to 7,120.

Overnight on Wall Street, stocks fell sharply as geopolitical tensions drove energy prices higher. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 739 points or 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8%.

Across Asia, markets also moved lower as of 9 a.m. Jakarta time. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.14% to 53,832, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.22% to 5,512, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.70% to 25,537, and China’s Shanghai SSE slipped 0.35% to 4,115.

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