Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) plunged sharply at Monday’s opening, tumbling 5.45% or 414 points to 7,174 within the first 15 minutes of trading, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging oil prices triggered a global risk-off sentiment.

The index had already dropped to 7,374 at the open before extending losses minutes later.

Trading activity was heavy early in the session, with 11.9 billion shares changing hands and turnover reaching Rp 5.19 trillion ($305 million) across more than 527,000 transactions. Only 31 stocks advanced, while 659 declined and 40 were unchanged.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said global sentiment had shifted toward risk aversion as the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran entered its second week with no signs of easing. The fighting has spread across several parts of the Middle East, raising fears of disruptions to global energy supply.

Investors have increasingly moved toward safe-haven assets and liquidity, strengthening the US dollar while pressuring equities and other risk assets.

“The VIX Volatility Index briefly reached its highest level in nearly one year, reflecting rising market anxiety. Historically, stock markets often rebound after major geopolitical shocks, but uncertainty over the direction of the conflict has prompted many investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach,” Kiwoom said in a research note on Monday.

Uncertainty deepened after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader, a move widely viewed as reinforcing the country’s hardline stance in the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. The appointment has heightened fears that tensions in the region could escalate further.

The geopolitical turmoil has also driven oil prices sharply higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged above $90 per barrel, marking its largest weekly gain since crude futures trading began in 1983.

US President Donald Trump said there would be no agreement to end the war with Iran without the country’s “unconditional surrender.”

Phintraco Sekuritas said the development had intensified investor concerns about prolonged conflict and its impact on global oil supply.

“This has increased investor anxiety that the war may last longer than previously expected, potentially extending disruptions to crude oil supply beyond earlier estimates,” Phintraco wrote in its research note on Monday.

The Indonesian government has also begun simulating the fiscal impact of higher energy prices. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa warned that if average oil prices reach $92 per barrel, the state budget deficit could widen to 3.6–3.7% of GDP if no policy adjustments are implemented.

The government is currently trying to keep the deficit below the 3% of GDP limit under Indonesia’s fiscal discipline framework. The state budget deficit reached Rp 135.7 trillion, or 0.53% of GDP, in February 2026, higher than 0.13% recorded in the same period last year.

Government revenue totaled Rp 358 trillion, equivalent to 11.4% of the 2026 state budget target, up from Rp 317.4 trillion in February 2025.

Meanwhile, state spending climbed 41.9% year-on-year to Rp 493.8 trillion, largely driven by the MBG program, social assistance, personnel expenditure, ministry and agency spending, and subsidies.

More from the domestic side, investors are also awaiting the release of several economic indicators this week, including consumer confidence (IKK), retail sales, and automotive sales data.

Phintraco estimates the JCI could retest the 7,480 level this week, but cautioned that further downside remains possible. “If the index fails to hold above that level, it may test the next support range at 7,250–7,300,” the brokerage said.

Kiwoom expects volatility to remain elevated this week, warning the benchmark index could consolidate further toward 7,335 as investors continue monitoring global developments.

Regionally, markets across Asia also plunged. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 7.33% to 51,546, while South Korea’s Kospi sank 8.11% to 5,132 as of 9:08 a.m. Jakarta time.

The sell-off followed a surge in oil prices triggered by supply concerns linked to the Middle East conflict. Brent crude traded at $109.46 per barrel, while US benchmark crude stood at $107.37, both more than 18% higher than Friday’s closing prices.

Crude prices are now at their highest level in more than three and a half years, with supply fears intensifying as the war affects major oil-producing countries and threatens exports from the Persian Gulf.

Some analysts warn that if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, the global economy could face significant damage.

On Wall Street last Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3% after data showed US employers cut more jobs than they created last month, while rising oil prices added pressure.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged as much as 945 points during the session before closing down 453 points, or 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.6%.