Jakarta. Indonesia’s trade surplus held steady at $2.51 billion in December 2025, extending a 68-month streak, but economists caution that sustaining export momentum in 2026 will be challenging amid geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism.

Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Director Eko Listiyanto said global trade conditions remain fragile, with unresolved geopolitical tensions likely to continue weighing on export and import performance.

“Amid this situation, Indonesia must continue to protect its key export destinations so that export growth can be maintained. Stability in export markets is crucial to sustaining national trade performance amid global uncertainty,” Eko said on Monday.

He added that risks also stem from domestic vulnerabilities, particularly Indonesia’s continued dependence on imported commodities. “This dependence could disrupt supply chains if geopolitical tensions escalate and exporting countries take different political stances,” he said.

“In a heated geopolitical environment, supplier countries could reduce or even halt shipments, which would directly affect domestic price stability and availability,” Eko warned. As a result, he stressed the need for a long-term strategy to reduce import dependence.

Echoing the concern, Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia Executive Director Mohammad Faisal said tighter US trade policies could set a precedent for broader protectionist measures, narrowing market access for Indonesian products.

He added that export growth weakened after Aug. 2025 following the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, compounded by falling commodity prices such as coal. As a result, the 7% export growth target for 2025 was not achieved. “Export performance is shaped not only downstream but also by upstream competitiveness, from raw materials and labor costs to policy alignment,” Faisal said.

Exports Led by Manufacturing

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) said the December surplus followed a $2.66 billion surplus in November and underscored Indonesia’s external resilience, even as global risks intensify.

For full-year 2025, Indonesia booked a trade surplus of $41.05 billion, driven by a $60.75 billion surplus in non-oil and gas trade, which more than offset a $19.70 billion deficit in oil and gas.

In December alone, non-oil and gas trade posted a $4.60 billion surplus, while the oil and gas balance recorded a $2.09 billion deficit.

Indonesia’s total exports reached $282.91 billion in 2025, up 6.15% year-on-year. Non-oil and gas exports accounted for $269.84 billion, growing 7.66%.

December exports climbed 11.64% annually to $26.35 billion, with non-oil and gas exports rising 13.72% to $25.09 billion.

BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Ateng Hartono said the manufacturing sector was the main driver, contributing 10.77% to non-oil and gas export growth in 2025. Key gainers included palm oil, jewelry and precious goods, organic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors.

December’s export surge was led by animal and vegetable fats and oils (up 43.53%), nickel products (up 59.92%), and electrical machinery (up 22.08%).

China remained Indonesia’s largest non-oil and gas export destination in 2025 at $64.82 billion, followed by the United States ($30.96 billion) and India ($18.32 billion). Together, the three markets accounted for 42.28% of total non-oil and gas exports.

Meanwhile, imports totaled $241.86 billion in 2025, up 2.83% from a year earlier, with non-oil and gas imports rising 5.11% to $209.09 billion.

In December, imports increased 10.81% year-on-year to $23.83 billion, reflecting stronger demand for raw materials and capital goods. The largest import increase in 2025 came from electrical machinery and parts, while iron and steel recorded the steepest decline.

The oil and gas trade deficit widened in December as energy imports grew faster than exports.

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