Jakarta. Global investors are expected to rotate into safe-haven assets as they interpret the United States tariff policy as a fresh source of volatility.

Rizal Taufikurahman, Head of Macroeconomics and Finance at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), said investors see US tariff measures not merely as protectionism but as a sign of policy uncertainty.

“When trade rules can shift within a short period, corporate earnings projections, commodity prices, and logistics flows become harder to predict,” Rizal said. “Because of that, global investors tend to temporarily reallocate funds into safe assets such as US government bonds and the US dollar, while emerging market assets are viewed as riskier even if their domestic fundamentals remain unchanged,” he added.

Rizal explained that US tariff turbulence mainly transmits through global risk sentiment rather than direct trade channels. “Rapid policy changes increase uncertainty in global trade, prompting global investors to reduce exposure to emerging market assets,  a risk-off move,” he said.

For Indonesia, the initial impact is typically seen in short-term portfolio outflows from bonds and equities, rising yields on government securities (SBN), and tighter market liquidity.

“So the early impact is felt more in financial markets than in the real sector,” Rizal noted.

He added that the rupiah usually comes under the fastest pressure, given its sensitivity to global dollar movements and capital flows. A stronger US dollar, combined with capital outflows, could lead to temporary depreciation of the rupiah.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is likely to remain volatile, with commodity-related stocks relatively more resilient compared with manufacturing and banking sectors.

“However, the movements are still sentiment-driven, so market direction in the coming days will depend heavily on global stability rather than purely domestic factors,” Rizal said.

As of 11:06  a.m. Jakarta time, JCI stood at Rp 8,379.34, rose 107 points or 1.28%. Meanwhile, the Antam spot gold price per gram is Rp 3,028,000, up Rp 16,000 from Rp 3,012,000 on Saturday.

According to Rizal, investors are now watching three key factors: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction and US inflation data; Bank Indonesia’s policy response to safeguard rupiah stability and liquidity; and clarity on the implementation of US tariffs toward partner countries, including Indonesia.

“In addition, domestic data such as inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign capital flows will indicate whether external pressures are temporary or beginning to affect national macroeconomic stability,” he said.

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