ADB Sees Indonesia Growing 5.2%, Below Govt Target
Makassar. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts a full-year growth of 5.2% for Indonesia in 2026, falling short of the government’s ambitions.
Indonesia wants to attain 5.4% growth in 2026. In 2027, the country aims to expand by at least 6%, which the government treats as a necessary building block to attain the larger 8% growth target. ADB Country Director for Indonesia Bobur Alimov said Thursday that while the Manila-based lender’s forecast was “just slightly below the government projections”, the figures remained “pretty much aligned”.
“There are many drivers for higher economic growth. We are working very closely with the government in identifying and implementing them,” Alimov told reporters during a tour to ADB’s projects in Makassar.
Asked what continues to be the “drivers”, Alimov said that would be a combination of different factors.
“It’s strong consumer spending, which is [currently] driving the economy. [As well as] increasing revenues and investment in high-value manufacturing. There are drivers for immediate growth, and those for long-term. What we see right now, a lot of it is actually for the longer-term growth,” Alimov replied.
“It’s fundamental for longer-term development, and this is investment in people.”
Bank Indonesia recently announced that the country’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) expansion would fall within a range of 4.9% and 5.7%. Indonesia has earmarked Rp 31 trillion ($1.7 billion) in a Q4 stimulus package to bolster consumer spending. Parts of the money will go into cash transfers and rice aid.
In the latest ADB report, Vietnam becomes the only ASEAN country whose pace hits the 7-percent mark for both 2026 and 2027. Indonesia beats Malaysia, whose annual GDP growth will touch 4.9% and 4.7% in both years, respectively. According to ADB, Thailand's GDP will only rise by 2% for 2026 before slowing to 1.9% the following year.
To date, ADB has committed $50.6 billion worth of financing as of April 2026; a portion of the money is public-sector loans. Alimov said that the multilateral development bank never had a single doubt about Indonesia’s ability to pay off its debt, saying that Jakarta has never missed its payment deadlines in the past.
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