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‘Only Time Will Tell’: Indonesia on World Bank’s 5.2% Forecast

Jayanty Nada Shofa
October 9, 2026 | 8:37 am
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Deputy Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Dradjad Hari Wibowo addresses the Investor Daily Summit on Oct. 8, 2026. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito de Saojao)
Deputy Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Dradjad Hari Wibowo addresses the Investor Daily Summit on Oct. 8, 2026. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito de Saojao)

Jakarta. The World Bank’s 5.2% forecast remains to be seen, according to a senior deputy minister, as Jakarta sets sights on more ambitious targets.

The World Bank has recently raised its 2026 outlook for Indonesia by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% in 2026. The forecast for 2027 stays unchanged at 5.2%. Indonesia wants its economy to expand by 6% next year, the newly appointed Deputy Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Dradjad Hari Wibowo announced Thursday.

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy expanded by 5.45% in the first half of 2026, and is aiming for a full-year growth of at least 5.4%. Asked about the World Bank’s forecasts, Dradjad only said that “only time will tell”, while saying that the government had already come up with plans to catapult growth.

“We have identified the sources of economic expansion. I’d say Q4 is a crucial time since its basis for growth is different. We have prepared steps to sustain growth this quarter,” Dradjad told the press on the margins of the Investor Daily Summit in Jakarta.

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But Dradjad doesn’t want the economy to solely bank on stimulus packages, saying that it is also important to make sure that people are also self-reliant.

“Stimulus is not our only [strategy].”

Dradjad — who had only spent a week in the cabinet — signaled some “new initiatives” that will make businesses “extremely happy”, but stayed tight-lipped on the details. The senior economist hinted that these pleasant surprises could be in the form of regulatory improvements, while some would be aimed at “economic transformation”. The government has also allocated up to Rp 31 trillion ($1.7 billion) for a Q4 economic stimulus, with parts of the money going to cash subsidies and food aid.

On the 6% target, Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said that the target would require a 7% year-on-year growth in investments. But this would not be a pipe dream, according to Suahasil, describing the state budget and the sovereign wealth fund Danantara as the country’s “two financial arms”.

“Sometimes we would use the state budget. Other times we would use Danantara. There are times when we would find a combination between public spending and Danantara’s investment to grow [the economy],” Suahasil told the same conference later that day.

The Prabowo Subianto administration aims to bring growth up to 8% by 2029.

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