Jakarta. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its 2026 growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.1%, although Jakarta still fails to beat fellow ASEAN nation Vietnam.

In its latest October report, the IMF revealed that it had raised Indonesia’s forecast by 0.1 percentage point compared to the July edition. Indonesia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) was previously seen expanding 5.1%. The global body kept its 5.1% projections for 2027 unchanged. The figures are slightly more pessimistic than the World Bank’s 5.2% outlook.

The report shows that Indonesia is outpacing some of its ASEAN counterparts. Close neighbor Malaysia is expected to grow 5.2% this year, but the pace will slow to 4.6% in 2027. Thailand’s real GDP is set to expand by a modest 2.1% for both years. The forecasts for the Philippines stand at 3.4% in 2026 and will rebound to 5.1% the next year. However, Jakarta has yet to dethrone Vietnam as ASEAN’s fastest-growing economy. Vietnam leads its peers with an 8.4% projection for 2026 and a 2027 outlook set at 7.5%.

At home, the fourth quarter is about to be a make-or-break for Indonesia’s full-year growth target of at least 5.4%. The government recently introduced a new stimulus package worth totaling Rp 31 trillion (roughly $1.7 billion) to spur household purchasing power. The rollout will include food aid and wage subsidies.

Senior Deputy Economic Minister Dradjad Hari Wibowo recently told the press that the government had already “identified the sources of economic expansion”. Asked about international projections, Dradjad replied that “only time will tell”.

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