Jakarta. The rupiah ended slightly weaker against the US dollar on Tuesday, closing at Rp 16,587 per dollar, depreciated by 12 points from the previous day’s close of Rp 16,575. .

Currency and gold analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi of Laba Forexindo Berjangka said the rupiah could continue to face downward pressure in Wednesday’s trading, moving within a range of Rp 16,580 to Rp 16,610 per dollar.

“The rupiah is expected to remain volatile and close weaker tomorrow, as markets keep a close eye on the ongoing US federal government shutdown,” Ibrahim said on Tuesday.

The US government shutdown has now entered its 21st day, becoming the third-longest funding halt in modern history after senators failed for the 11th time to break the deadlock over budget legislation.

Investor sentiment also weakened following comments from US President Donald Trump, who said he hoped to reach a “fair trade agreement” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, signaling uncertainty in global trade relations.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further dampened risk appetite after Israel launched airstrikes in response to an alleged ceasefire violation by Hamas overnight.

In Europe, concerns rose after Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk refinery, operated by Rosneft in the Volga region, halted primary crude processing on Sunday following a drone attack. Speculation that the US would refrain from imposing new sanctions on Russia’s oil sector added to volatility after reports suggested Trump had urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cede some territory to Russia to end the war.

Domestically, the rupiah also came under pressure amid reports that President Prabowo Subianto is considering revising Government Regulation No. 8/2025, which requires exporters of natural resource commodities to keep 100 percent of their foreign exchange earnings (DHE SDA) in Indonesia for 12 months. The policy, aimed at strengthening the country’s foreign reserves, has reportedly been under review in several limited cabinet meetings.

On Wednesday, investors will closely monitor the outcome of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting, with markets widely expecting the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent from 4.75 percent. The deposit facility rate is forecast to drop to 3.5 percent and the lending facility rate to 5.25 percent.

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