Jakarta. Indonesian stocks clawed back into positive territory at Wednesday’s close, gaining 0.32% or 15 points to 4,919 after spending most of the trading session under pressure from persistent foreign outflows, domestic political uncertainty and concerns over the state budget.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) moved between 4,824 and 4,921 during the session. Trading volume reached 26.6 billion shares, with a total transaction value of Rp 10.76 trillion ($592.69 million) and more than 1.22 million transactions. A total of 190 stocks advanced, while 439 declined and 88 remained unchanged.

Domestic pressures continued to weigh on the market, particularly persistent foreign capital outflows, political uncertainty and concerns over fiscal conditions amid elevated global oil prices.

Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas said foreign investors had yet to fully regain confidence in Indonesia’s equity market.

"These sentiments continue to weigh on the JCI following issues surrounding the classification of Indonesia's stock market by MSCI," Pilarmas wrote in its research note on Wednesday.

Domestic political uncertainty has also drawn investors' attention. One issue under scrutiny involves allegations of illegal wiretapping targeting President Prabowo Subianto, reportedly involving a former National Police chief. However, the allegations still require confirmation and cannot be treated as established facts.

Fiscal concerns have added to the pressure. Global oil prices briefly declined to $103.6 per barrel but remained well above the government's $70-per-barrel assumption in the state budget.

"This could put additional pressure on the state budget if oil prices remain elevated," Pilarmas said.

The combination of these factors has kept investors cautious as they assess domestic risks and the pace of foreign investor confidence recovery. Political uncertainty and mounting fiscal pressure could further shape perceptions of investment risk in Indonesian equities.

Meanwhile, investors are also bracing for MSCI's upcoming index review on Nov. 12, 2026, with changes scheduled to take effect on Nov. 30.

Two conglomerate-linked stocks are seen as potential targets for the rebalancing. According to Mirae Asset Sekuritas' research, they are Bumi Resources Minerals (IDX: BRMS), controlled by the Salim and Bakrie groups, and Barito Pacific (IDX: BRPT), owned by tycoon Prajogo Pangestu.

BRMS could be downgraded to the Global Small Cap Index, while BRPT could be removed from the Global Standard Index.

On the external front, Pilarmas said investors were also monitoring peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesman said both sides were still evaluating a proposal submitted by mediators. Meanwhile, Iran's national security chief indicated that Washington's response to the proposal had yet to meet Tehran's expectations.

Global markets were mostly higher on Wednesday after the US midterm elections gave Democrats majorities in both chambers of Congress.

The results marked a decisive rebuke of Republican governance and are expected to usher in a period of greater congressional resistance to US President Donald Trump. BMarkets generally favor a divided government, in which control of Washington is split between Republicans and Democrats, as this is seen as reducing the risk of sweeping policy changes that could reshape the economy.

Investors have largely focused on developments surrounding artificial intelligence in recent weeks.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.4%, while South Korea's Kospi rose 0.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.5%, and the Shanghai Composite gained 2.2%.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, despite most of its constituent stocks declining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 197 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8%.

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