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Govt Targets 5.5–5.6% Q1 Growth Amid Holiday Stimulus Push

Arnoldus Kristianus
March 3, 2026 | 5:04 pm
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The photo shows the Gatot Subroto Street on April 1, 2025. Many Jakartans have left to travel to their hometowns to celebrate Eid, hence the traffic-free roads. (B1 Photo/Joanito de Saojao)
The photo shows the Gatot Subroto Street on April 1, 2025. Many Jakartans have left to travel to their hometowns to celebrate Eid, hence the traffic-free roads. (B1 Photo/Joanito de Saojao)

Jakarta. The Indonesian government is targeting 5.5–5.6% economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, backed by a series of holiday stimulus measures, including the disbursement of Eid al-Fitr bonuses and transport fare discounts, officials said Tuesday.

Chief Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said the government has allocated Rp 55 trillion ($3.25 billion) for the annual Eid bonusss (THR) for civil servants, military and police personnel, and retirees — a 10% increase from last year’s Rp 49 trillion.

The allocation covers 2.4 million central government employees, TNI and Polri personnel (Rp 22.2 trillion); 4.3 million regional government employees (Rp 20.2 trillion); and 3.8 million retirees (Rp 12.7 trillion).

THR payments include full basic salary and allowances, and are separate from the 13th-month salary scheduled for June.

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For private-sector workers, the government reaffirmed that THR must be paid in full no later than seven days before Eid and cannot be paid in installments. Companies that fail to comply face administrative sanctions and a 5% penalty. The policy applies to around 26.5 million registered formal workers, with total THR payments estimated at Rp 124 trillion.

In addition, bonuses for ride-hailing drivers (BHR) will more than double this year to Rp 220 billion, benefiting over 850,000 drivers across platforms including GoTo, Grab, Maxim and inDrive.

“We expect economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 to be higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025. Therefore, we are targeting first-quarter 2026 growth at between 5.5% and 5.6%,” Affairs Airlangga said at a press conference at his office on Tuesday.

Transport Discounts Ahead of Mudik Surge

The government has also introduced transport fare discounts worth Rp 911.16 billion to support the annual homecoming exodus, or mudik.

Train tickets will be discounted by 30% for travel between March 14–29, while state-owned shipping operator PT Pelni will offer a 30% fare cut from March 11–April 5. Ferry operator ASDP will waive port service fees from March 12–31, and domestic economy-class airfares will receive discounts of 17–18% for flights between March 14–29. Discounted tickets have been available for purchase since Feb. 11.

Indonesia is bracing for one of its largest annual travel surges, with an estimated 143.9 million people — or about 50.6% of the population — expected to travel during the 2026 Eid holiday period, according to the Transportation Ministry.

The first outbound peak is projected for March 13, followed by a second wave on March 18. Return travel is expected to begin March 23, with peak flows forecast on March 24 and March 28.

Food Aid Support

To further boost purchasing power during Ramadan, the government will distribute food assistance consisting of 10 kilograms of rice and 2 liters of cooking oil per month to 35.04 million beneficiary families, with a total budget of Rp 11.92 trillion. The aid will be disbursed in a lump sum for two months at the start of Ramadan.

Officials expect the combination of fiscal stimulus, social assistance, transport incentives and holiday bonuses to support household consumption and lift economic growth in the first quarter.

Southeast Asia's largest economy grew by 5.39% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and 5.11% for the full year. This year, the government aims to reach a growth of 5.6%.

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