Jakarta. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (IDX: GOTO) posted its first-ever quarterly net profit, driven by rapid growth in its lending arm, even as Indonesia’s largest tech platform held its full-year outlook steady amid concerns over fuel prices and consumer demand.

The Jakarta-listed company reported a net profit of Rp 258 billion ($14.88 million) for the first quarter of 2026, according to a note by BRI Danareksa Equity Research (BRIDS). The result marks a turning point for the ride-hailing and e-commerce group after years of losses, with adjusted EBITDA reaching Rp 907 billion, up 35% from the previous quarter.

The earnings beat was largely fueled by GoTo Financial (GTF), where the loan book expanded to Rp9.9 trillion, a 12.7% quarterly increase. Growth was supported by a rise in monthly transacting users to 27.5 million and early traction from merchant lending, which contributed around Rp500 billion in loans.

Still, momentum in the company’s on-demand services (ODS) segment remained sluggish. Gross transaction value declined on a quarterly basis due to seasonal factors, while 4% annual growth underscores ongoing challenges in scaling beyond higher-income segments. Margins improved, however, with the adjusted EBITDA margin in ODS rising 35 basis points to 2.7%, reflecting stronger monetization among affluent users.

Despite the stronger-than-expected quarter, GoTo maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance at Rp3.2 trillion to Rp3.4 trillion, signaling a cautious stance as macroeconomic uncertainties persist.

"Risks tied to potential fuel price increases and weakening purchasing power, both of which could weigh on demand across its mobility and delivery services," BRIDS analyst Kafi Ananta said in a research note on Wednesday.

Management flagged the possibility of passing on higher costs to users if conditions deteriorate, particularly targeting premium segments that have shown greater resilience. The company is also pivoting toward artificial intelligence initiatives following the completion of its cloud migration, aiming to roll out more personalized user interfaces across its ecosystem to drive engagement and spending.

These efforts are expected to help reaccelerate ODS growth to high single-digit levels this year, with BRIDS forecasting around 8.5% annual expansion.

BRI Danareksa maintained a “buy” rating on the stock with a target price of Rp80, citing strong long-term prospects in the fintech business. The brokerage projects GTF’s adjusted EBITDA to reach Rp2.9 trillion by 2028, implying a compound annual growth rate of 58% from 2026, and accounting for roughly 42% of its sum-of-the-parts valuation.

The firm also pointed to improving cash generation as a key support for shareholder returns. GoTo recorded adjusted free cash flow of Rp1.3 trillion in the first quarter and held a cash position of Rp23 trillion. Management has indicated it may accelerate share buybacks under its existing $200 million program, of which $114 million has already been deployed.

In the near term, however, BRIDS remain neutral on the stock’s tactical outlook, citing risks from fuel price volatility, softer consumer spending and execution challenges in expanding its mass-market reach.

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