Washington. Think it’s hot now? The next five years are likely to break even more climate records, the United Nations warned on Wednesday, with global temperatures expected to keep rising beyond internationally agreed safety thresholds.

New projections from the World Meteorological Organization and the Met Office forecast a 75% chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the benchmark set under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Scientists also warned of an overheating Arctic, worsening drought in the Amazon and increasingly destructive floods, heat waves and wildfires worldwide as the planet continues warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

The report said there is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5-degree threshold, while there is an 86% chance a new annual heat record will be set, eclipsing 2024 as the hottest year on record.

“It’s important to note that 1.5 degrees is not a cliff edge that we suddenly fall off,” said Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office and co-author of the report. “But every additional 0.1 degree brings increasingly severe impacts.”

Scientists have long warned that even small increases in warming could sharply raise the risks of extreme weather, species loss and ecosystem collapse. Coral reefs and glaciers are considered especially vulnerable.

Friederike Otto of Imperial College London, who was not involved in the report, said prolonged warming above 1.5 degrees would likely trigger weather conditions beyond what cities and agricultural systems were designed to withstand.

“This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires,” Otto said.

Much of the near-term warming is expected to be amplified by a strong El Niño weather pattern, a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that raises global temperatures and disrupts weather worldwide. The report said El Niño conditions could persist through 2028, increasing the likelihood that 2027 could surpass current global heat records.

The Arctic is forecast to warm about 3.5 times faster than the global average because melting sea ice reduces the planet’s ability to reflect solar radiation back into space, creating a feedback loop that accelerates warming.

The report projects Arctic winters over the next five years will average 2.8 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline, while summer sea ice is expected to continue shrinking.

Scientists also warned of unusually dry conditions in the Amazon basin, increasing wildfire risks in one of the world’s largest carbon sinks. Severe drought could weaken the rainforest’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide, potentially worsening climate change.

Meanwhile, the Sahel region in Africa, historically prone to drought, may experience heavier rainfall and greater flood risks.

Simon Stiell said global efforts to slow climate change remain insufficient.

“Global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it,” Stiell said, warning that extreme heat, floods, wildfires and food supply disruptions are already imposing mounting economic and human costs worldwide.

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