Jakarta. The Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) recently revealed its outlook for the prices of crude oil and gold commodities in 2026.

The ICDX expects prices to continue to fluctuate due not only to global economic factors, but also geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict. ICDX Director Nursalam said that the 2026 Commodity Outlook aimed to become a reference for businesses in determining their strategic policies for the year.

"Specifically for crude oil and gold contracts, we know that global geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, will certainly have a greater or lesser impact on the prices of these commodities," said Nursalam.

"For multilateral trading at the ICDX, there are futures contracts for both crude oil and gold, which businesses can use for hedging."

In a highly volatile commodity price environment, this hedging mechanism is essential for business actors with long-term businesses. For crude oil and gold futures contracts, the ICDX currently trades multilaterally traded products, namely GOFX.

"GOFX itself is a commodity derivative instrument consisting of Gold Spot and Futures Contracts, Crude Oil Futures Contracts, and mini-sized Forex Spot Contracts (1/10 of the standard contract)," Nursalam said.

The ICDX recorded 61,260 lots of multilateral transactions for crude oil-based commodity contracts throughout 2025. Multilateral transactions for gold-based commodity contracts reached 1,627,698 lots.

The COFRMic contract dominated the crude oil, with transactions totaling 51,548 lots. The COFRMic contract is a micro-sized crude oil futures contract based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price as the underlying. This contract has a lot size of 10 barrels per lot, providing market participants with more flexible access to transactions and hedging against crude oil price fluctuations.

Gold commodity futures contracts were dominated by the GOLDUDMic, with 682,310 lots traded. GOLDUDMic is a micro version of the GOLDUD contract, with a size of 1/100th the standard contract. The minimum transaction is 1 micro lot (equivalent to 0.01 GOLDUD contract). The smaller contract size makes USD-based gold transactions more affordable, while still providing exposure to global gold price movements based on the Loco London market.

GOLDUD is a USD-denominated daily rolling gold contract traded on the exchange with a contract size of 10 troy ounces per lot. This contract is benchmarked to the international Loco London gold market price with a purity of 99.99%, thus reflecting global gold price movements.

Outlook Gold Commodities
Tiffani Safinia, an analyst from ICDX Research and Development, went on to say that 2025 had been one of the best years for gold in decades.

"Throughout 2025, gold prices rose significantly by 64%, reaching 53 all-time highs. The all-time high is recorded at $4,550/oz on December 26, 2025. The average price is around $3,431/oz. Gold purchases by central banks will reach approximately 863 tons," said Tiffani.

Several sentiments driving gold's rise in 2025 include three interest rate cuts totaling 75 bps through the FOMC decision, the Middle East conflict (Israel-Iran), the Ukraine war, and US-China tensions. Total gold purchases by the US Federal Reserve will only reach around 863 tons, lower than in the 2022-2024 period. The volatile movement of the US dollar, influenced by uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy and interest rate expectations, also increases allocations to gold.

Several global financial institutions have raised their gold price projections for 2026, driven by persistent global geopolitical risks and structural demand from central banks. This reflects expectations of a strengthening gold rally amid geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive central bank buying.

In the short term, gold movements are still influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, bond yields, and developments in global conflicts. However, overall, gold prices are projected to be in the range of $5,500–$6,000 per troy ounce until the end of 2026, with volatility remaining high amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

According to a Reuters poll of 30 international analysts and traders, the median gold price projection for 2026 is $4,746.50 per troy ounce, a significant increase from the $4,275 estimate released in October. At the institutional level, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its raised its gold price target for the end of 2026 to $5,400 per troy ounce, from $4,900 previously, highlighting increasing demand from private investors and central banks as the main catalyst. J.P. Morgan is also optimistic, projecting a gold price of $6,300 per troy ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Morgan Stanley set an average projection of US$4,600, with a bullish scenario reaching $5,700 in the second half of 2026.

Crude Oil Commodity Outlook
Girta Putra Yoga, an analyst from ICDX Research and Development, stated that 2025 will be a challenging year for crude oil.

"The average price of black gold has decreased by more than 21% to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, compared to the average price at the beginning of the year of $77 per barrel," he said.

In the first half, crude oil prices fell by almost 10%, with The average price traded around $69 per barrel. Global crude oil prices were overshadowed by pressure from the tariff war imposed by US President Donald Trump on China and several of its major trading partners, such as Canada and Mexico.

As a result, the average crude oil price was observed to be bearish, falling to $62 per barrel in May. This was followed by a 90-day tariff pause after the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause. Prices continued to strengthen until the close of the first quarter, supported by signs of escalating conflict in the Middle East following Israel's operation against Iran.

However, this strengthening trend was short-lived. Entering the second half, the threat of higher US tariffs, despite several countries negotiating in good faith, put further pressure on crude oil prices. Signals from the OPEC+ alliance to increase production and the start of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire last October pushed global crude oil prices bearish throughout the second half of 2025. The average price declined by almost 13%, trading around $64 per barrel. barrels.

"Optimistic hopes for strengthening global crude oil prices were again evident in early 2026. The affirmation of the OPEC producer alliance's commitment to maintaining production until December 2026 was a catalyst that pushed crude oil prices back up," Girta said.

"Geopolitical tensions that characterized the opening of 2026, starting with the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the US military, Trump's desire to acquire Greenland from Denmark, and the outbreak of the US-Iran war, pushed crude oil prices up again, reaching $90 per barrel in early March, from $57 per barrel in early January 2026," Girta said.

Judging by the current market situation and developments, crude oil prices are expected to maintain strong bullish potential until the second half of 2026. The resistance level is projected to be in the range of $95-$100 per barrel, and the support level in the range of $80-$75 per barrel. Monitored indicators will continue to focus on developments in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran war, OPEC+ production policies, and Trump's trade tariff policies.