Jakarta. The escalating conflict in the Middle East, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is now a ticking time bomb for the global energy supply chain, including Indonesia. At the same time, millions of Indonesians are preparing to travel home for Eid, which will undoubtedly consume massive amounts of fuel. 

This dilemma was the key topic at the Energy Iftar Forum 2026, initiated by the Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers Association (ASPEBINDO) in collaboration with Energy Hub at The Tribrata, Jakarta, last week.

This forum examined the extent to which Indonesia’s energy supply can survive, from upstream to downstream ports.

For ASPEBINDO Chairman Anggawira, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be underestimated, as its domino effect could directly impact people's livelihoods.

"Any escalation in the region has a direct impact on global energy price spikes, including our fuel import costs. Considering that Indonesia's dependence on fuel imports exceeds 50%, we are highly vulnerable to imported inflation, which risks suppressing people's purchasing power and burdening the state budget," said Anggawira.

Reforminer Institute executive director Komaidi Notonegoro revealed approximately 18 to 20% of Indonesia's crude oil imports must pass through the currently blockaded Strait of Hormuz.

"Indonesia only has a safe buffer of around nine days if there are no new supplies," Komaidi said.

He went on to say that the national fuel storage capacity averages only 14-30 days. This is far behind than that of Japan, whose reserves can last up to 199 days.

Aware that the issue of dwindling energy stocks could trigger panic ahead of Eid al-Fitr, the government moved quickly to calm the situation.

Energy Ministry senior official Laode Sulaiman urged the public to not worry about the narrative that fuel stocks would only last 20 days.

"Everyone is excitedly discussing this as if this is a new occurrence. In fact, for years now, our reserves have been at that level, 20-25 days. That's a normal supply management mechanism," Laode said.

The government has anticipated projected increases in gasoline demand of up to 12% and LPG of around 4% during the holidays. The government has prepared 7,885 gas stations and 6,777 Pertashops across the country.

However, the reality on paper often differs from the reality on the ground.

Energy advisor Tommy Jamail Jr. called this homecoming flow a "stress test" or the most extreme endurance test for our energy system.

"The energy system is not only tested by geopolitical events, but also by seasonal demand spikes. In Indonesia, the Eid al-Fitr homecoming period creates a unique stress test because the distribution challenge must span 17,000 islands," Tommy said. 

No matter how great the fuel reserves are, the key lies in the reliability of maritime logistics, according to Tommy.

Responding to this challenge, Pelindo Multi Terminal's Director of Strategy and Commercial Affairs Rizki Kurniawan assured that the ports would not stop. LPG imports are expected to reach 7.8 million tons this year.

"During this peak season, we will keep critical facilities like the Benoa LNG Terminal on standby, operating 24/7 to ensure an uninterrupted gas supply for Bali's power plants," Rizki said.

These port security measures align with guarantees from PLN. The state utility firm’s vice president of diesel and biogas power plant management Junaidi promised that the public would be able to celebrate Eid brightly without the disruption of power outages.

"PLN has declared a Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr Standby Period from March 14 to 28, 2026. We are ensuring the electricity system's power supply remains in normal condition by securing sufficient operating days for primary energy sources such as coal and gas," he said.

From Physical to Mental Infrastructure

To prevent Indonesia from constantly panicking every time a crisis occurs in the Middle East, energy security analyst Putut Agung Nugroho offered a radical solution. He urged the government to immediately implement the fast track program.

"Indonesia must immediately build a commercial strategic oil storage hub in the Strait of Malacca. Furthermore, massive investment is needed to acquire international oil fields to bring barrels back to Indonesia,'" Putut said.

However, managing energy needs is not just about physical infrastructure, oil tanks, or cargo ships. Emotional intelligence expert Rizky Mahendra highlighted the "mental infrastructure" of policymakers.

"Amid the pressure of the global crisis and the operational demands of Eid al-Fitr, stakeholders are vulnerable to stress. Emotional regulation is heavily influenced by internal dialogue or self-talk. If we can manage it, we can activate the prefrontal cortex to think logically and calm the Amygdala, which triggers panic," Rizky said.

Ultimately, maintaining national energy security ahead of this year's Eid al-Fitr holiday requires a frenzied effort. It requires a combination of fully stocked oil tanks, fully operational ports, continuous electricity supply, and, of course, leaders who remain clear-headed and calm amidst the storm of crisis.

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