Yogyakarta. The megathrust zone around Indonesia's Sunda Strait remains a priority for earthquake monitoring because tectonic strain in the area has not been fully released, a leading geologist said, while stressing that this does not mean a major earthquake is imminent.

Dwikorita Karnawati, a professor of environmental geology and disaster mitigation at Gadjah Mada University and former head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), said the Sunda Strait requires particular attention in earthquake disaster mitigation.

“What we need to remain alert to, once again, is the Sunda Strait,” Dwikorita said in Yogyakarta on Wednesday.

“For BMKG, the Sunda Strait is a super-priority area that must be continuously monitored. Various instruments using different technologies have been installed there, and hopefully they can be properly maintained,” she added.

The Sunda Strait separates the islands of Java and Sumatra and lies near an active tectonic boundary where the Indo-Australian Plate converges with the Sunda Plate. The region is also home to the Krakatau volcanic complex.

Dwikorita explained that Indonesia's megathrust zones are divided into a number of segments along tectonic plate boundaries. Such zones are capable of generating very large earthquakes.

According to Dwikorita, most of Indonesia's megathrust segments have experienced significant releases of accumulated tectonic strain, but two areas remain of particular concern: the Siberut segment near the Mentawai Islands off West Sumatra and the segment around the Sunda Strait.

“Of those megathrust segments, most have released their energy. But there are two segments in Indonesia where the energy has not yet been released,” she said.

She urged communities not to disregard the earthquake risk in those areas and said continued monitoring and disaster preparedness remain essential.

Location Can Be Mapped, Timing Cannot
Dwikorita stressed that identifying areas capable of producing megathrust earthquakes does not mean scientists can determine when a major earthquake will occur.

“Can a megathrust be predicted? Yes, spatially, we can identify approximately where it is located,” she said.

But that ability does not extend to accurately forecasting the timing of an earthquake.

“Can we predict the area? Yes. But in terms of when it will happen? That cannot be predicted accurately,” Dwikorita said.

Scientists can identify active faults, subduction zones, and areas where large earthquakes are possible, but there is currently no scientifically reliable method for predicting the precise time of a major earthquake.

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