Jakarta. Indonesia is worried that major military powers, the United States and Russia, are now without any treaty that constrains their nuclear arsenal.

The US and Russia — home to the world’s largest nuclear arsenals — have long had the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, better known as New START, that put a cap on the number of their warheads until it expired on Feb. 5.

Speaking at the recent Geneva-based nuclear disarmament conference, Foreign Minister Sugiono admitted that Indonesia was troubled by the world losing its guardrails.

“The expiration of the New START treaty — the last binding constraint on the two largest nuclear arsenals — marks a troubling moment. For the first time in decades, there are no agreed limits on their strategic nuclear forces,” Sugiono said on Monday local time.

And the New START Treaty’s expiration extends far beyond bilateral relations, but can affect other parts of the world. 

“It affects every state, particularly those that have chosen nuclear restraint. It reduces predictability, erodes transparency, and increases the risk of miscalculation and renewed arms racing,” Sugiono said. 

Indonesia zeroed in on a wide commitment gap hovering over non-nuclear-weapon nations and those that possess such arsenals. The latter have yet to withdraw their nuclear weapons, as Sugiono warned about countries growing their inventories. The rise of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and cyberspace capabilities also adds fuel to the fire.

“Most non-nuclear-weapon states continue to meet strict non-proliferation and safeguards standards. Yet, disarmament progress remains limited. It sends a troubling signal: that nuclear disarmament is optional, while non-proliferation obligations remain mandatory,” Sugiono said.

When the New START treaty ceased, US President Donald Trump called the pact “a badly negotiated deal” and also one that is being “grossly violated”. He said that both Moscow and Washington would have their nuclear experts work on a “new, improved, and modernized treaty”. He has expressed an intention to include China in the upgraded treaty, although Beijing has shown little interest in signing on.

The first START agreement between the US and the former Soviet Union dates back to 1991. Moscow and Washington inked a document titled New START in 2010, which only let each country have no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 missiles and bombers deployed and ready for use. In 2021, the treaty had a five-year extension.

According to the 2025 Status of the World's Nuclear Forces, Russia’s warhead inventories stand at 5,459, followed by the US (5,177) and China (600). There are around 12,321 nuclear warheads globally spread across 9 countries.

Indonesia has ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons that bans the possession and transfer of nuclear weapons. Despite aggressive military modernization at home, Indonesia to this day does not have such technologies.

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