Jakarta. Indonesia needs to keep a close watch on how the US-Iran high-stakes talks are progressing, according to ex-foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, although the former senior diplomat feels it is unlikely for Jakarta to step in as a mediator.

The US and Iran had just had their first round of face-to-face peace talks in Switzerland. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan claimed that the meeting had ended on a positive note, while announcing that preparations for technical talks are underway. Asked whether Indonesia should step up as a mediator in the current negotiations, Hassan replied that it would be “far-fetched”, saying it’d be best for Jakarta to simply monitor the developments.

“What we need to do is to pay attention to the negotiations from up close to identify its implications on our [economy] and the world,” Hassan told reporters on the sidelines of an ASEAN-China conference on Monday.

“This includes whether they have reached an actual deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. … We [Indonesia] rely on the crude flows from the Hormuz.” 

Hassan went on to talk of the dynamics in the negotiations, saying that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive threats could risk souring the mood at the negotiating table. Trump recently threatened to restart the war despite his veep JD Vance citing progress. Vance was present at the Swiss meeting.

Having “external parties” as part of the deal also set its own challenge, according to Hassan, referring to the warring Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militia. The initial 14-point MoU had covered a stop to military operations in Lebanon.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz—which handles a quarter of the world's oil maritime trade—is central in the talks. Iran has effectively blocked the narrow waterway in retaliation against Israel-US attacks on February 28, leaving two Indonesian tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf. The closure has driven up the global crude benchmark Brent to break through $100 per barrel. Prices have fallen following the interim peace deal. As of Monday, Brent had slipped under $80 per barrel. 

“Negotiations can bring down crude prices, but of course, it would take time. … Estimates suggest that it would take three months for the [maritime traffic] to return to normal,” Hassan said.

At home, Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani is upbeat that developments can spur “positive sentiment for Indonesia’s economy”. Senior economic minister Airlangga Hartarto signaled that the earlier peace agreement didn’t mean Jakarta would rush into making adjustments to its energy policies.

Indonesia’s mantra in response to the US-Iran war has been “self-restraint and dialogue”. Early on in the fighting, President Prabowo Subianto had offered to mediate between the US and Iran, even willing to head to Tehran to facilitate the discussions.