Jakarta. ASEAN needs to accept the fact that the US-China rivalry is here to stay, regardless of whether US President Donald Trump is in power, according to an Indonesian presidential aide.

ASEAN is in a “polycrisis”, Mari Elka Pangestu, the presidential advisor on multilateral cooperation, warned on Tuesday. The Southeast Asian bloc is facing supply chain disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz’s persistent blockade, coupled with a warming planet and geopolitical shifts, all at once. The simultaneous multiple crises require a “structural response”. 

“A structural response means accepting the realities we cannot control or change, such as the tension or major power competition. Whoever is going to be the US president, it [rivalry] will continue to be there,” Mari told a conference at the ASEAN Secretariat on Tuesday.

The former trade minister listed the individual ASEAN nations’ domestic priorities and the physical geography of the region as other things that the group can’t change. She added: “How we [ASEAN] build resilience within these constraints is really what we want to be talking about.”

She also pushed ASEAN to go beyond dialogue, but to deliver tangible results that make a difference to its people in the face of this polycrisis. “We still believe that the strength of ASEAN is there, and [this] rests on its relevance to its members,” Mari said.

Amid Mari’s warnings, both China and the US are currently expanding their influence in the region. The grouping, however, chooses not to take sides.

The past year has seen individual ASEAN nations trying to appease Trump’s tariff wrath as its rates vary by country. Trump had also brokered a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia who had been fighting along their disputed border. His predecessor Joe Biden hailed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a multi-partner economic initiative aimed at countering China’s dominance. Most ASEAN members, including Indonesia, are part of this pact. The Trump 2.0 administration, however, has gone radio silent on the IPEF.

China has long been ASEAN’s largest trading partner. When it upgraded its free trade agreement with ASEAN last year, Beijing even warned the club of “economic bullying” in an indirect jab at Trump’s tariffs. Just a few days ago, Chinese Ambassador to ASEAN Wang Qing advised ASEAN to stay away from joining “exclusive circles”, a statement that appears to be targeted at shrinking Washington’s influence in the region. 

“We should ensure that mutual trust, solidarity, and cooperation remain mainstream. And keep the region's future in our own hands,” Wang told a forum on Monday, also held at the ASEAN Secretariat.

“We must oppose any external interference. Any attempt to form exclusive circles or stop bloc confrontation.”

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