Jakarta. Indonesia’s plan to centralize all fuel imports under state-owned Pertamina could drive foreign operators like Shell and BP out of the market, an energy expert warned Tuesday.

Fahmy Radhi, an energy economist at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), said the “one-gate” import scheme, proposed by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM), would strip private fuel retailers such as Shell and BP of their ability to independently source supplies. Until now, foreign operators have been allowed to set up filling stations, import fuel based on allocated quotas, and price their products according to market mechanisms.

“With one-gate imports, foreign stations will lose that flexibility. They would have to buy fuel directly from Pertamina at prices it sets, cutting into their margins and making operations unprofitable,” Fahmy said on Tuesday.

He cautioned that sustained losses could force international brands to exit the Indonesian market, leaving Pertamina with a near-monopoly over downstream oil and gas distribution.

Such an outcome, he argued, would not only reduce competition and efficiency but also risk damaging Indonesia’s broader investment climate. “If foreign fuel stations leave, the impact goes beyond the energy sector. Investor confidence in other industries would also suffer,” Fahmy said.  He urged the government to cancel the plan, calling it a potential policy blunder.

The criticism comes as Indonesia scrambles to address persistent fuel shortages at private filling stations. Since August, retailers including Shell and BP have struggled to secure adequate supply after failing to obtain additional import quotas. To ease the crunch, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has asked private operators to purchase fuel from Pertamina’s refineries.

At a parliamentary hearing on Sept. 11, Pertamina President Director Simon Aloysius Mantiri pushed back against rumors that the company was behind the shortages at private stations. The allegations, first raised by lawmakers, claimed that Pertamina, through the Energy Ministry, had delayed or restricted import permits for private fuel distributors.

“Suggestions that Pertamina asked ESDM to withhold import quotas from private gas stations are completely untrue,” Simon said. “We comply with the rules set by regulators and remain focused on maximizing refinery output to ensure fuel security.”

Simon stressed that Pertamina, as a state-owned enterprise, also operates under quotas assigned by downstream regulator BPH Migas. “We will continue working hard to improve the quality and reliability of our refinery products so that the public maintains confidence in Pertamina,” he said.

Deputy Energy Minister Yuliot Tanjung said the one-gate system is intended to prevent oversupply or shortages while balancing Indonesia’s trade relationship with the United States. Under a recent deal with Washington, Indonesia agreed to import about $15 billion worth of liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, and refined products from US suppliers such as ExxonMobil and Chevron. In return, the US reduced import tariffs on Indonesian goods to 19 percent from 32 percent, effective Aug. 7.

Preliminary estimates show Indonesia may need to import an additional 1.4 million kiloliters of fuel this year, largely because motorists are shifting from subsidized Pertalite to non-subsidized gasoline.