Jakarta. Rupiah weakened to the brink of the Rp 18,000-per-dollar mark on Thursday and is expected to remain under pressure in Friday's trading, as weak manufacturing data and concerns over Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves dampened investor sentiment.

The rupiah closed at Rp 17,995 per US dollar on Thursday afternoon, down 43 points from Rp 17,950 in the previous session.

Ibrahim Assuaibi, director of Traze Andalan Futures, expects the currency to remain volatile but end weaker on Friday, trading within a range of Rp 17,990 to Rp 18,050 per dollar.

"The rupiah is likely to fluctuate but close weaker in the Rp 17,990-Rp 18,050 range," Ibrahim said in a statement on Thursday.

He said the currency is expected to remain under pressure after S&P Global reported Indonesia's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 46.9 in June, marking its steepest contraction in a year.

Sentiment was also weighed down by a recent assessment from Fitch Ratings, which projected that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in 2026 would cover only about 4.9 months of current external payments, slightly below the five-month median for countries rated BBB.

"According to Fitch, the decline in foreign exchange reserves is mainly driven by worsening terms of trade due to higher global energy prices, Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange market intervention to support the rupiah, and external debt repayments," Ibrahim said.

He added that market confidence in Indonesia has been tested by a series of negative developments entering the second quarter, including high-profile corruption cases, concerns over the government's fiscal position after the country posted a trade deficit in May, rising inflation, and the postponement of an announcement on Indonesia's capital market by global index provider MSCI.

Externally, Ibrahim said the rupiah continued to weaken even as tensions between the United States and Iran eased slightly following progress in indirect talks over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Market attention has now shifted to the release of US nonfarm payrolls data later tonight, with expectations that the US economy added 110,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%," he said.

According to Bloomberg data as of 3:59 p.m. Jakarta time, the Singapore dollar traded at Rp 13,926, the Japanese yen at Rp 111.74, the Australian dollar at Rp 12,432, and the euro at Rp 20,563 against the rupiah.

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