Jakarta. Rupiah is set to take cues from US policy and inflation signals on Thursday as investors await details of a planned buyback of long-dated US Treasury securities, while rising oil prices add pressure to emerging-market currencies.

Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede said expectations surrounding the US Treasury Department’s buyback plan had weighed on the US dollar, providing a key external factor for the rupiah.

“The US dollar is under pressure as investors anticipate the US Treasury Department’s announcement on the size of its planned buyback of long-dated UST securities,” Josua said on Thursday.

An earlier announcement indicated that the total value of the buyback would be at least $4 billion, although some analysts expect the amount could be significantly higher.

A weaker dollar could provide some support for emerging-market currencies such as the rupiah, as investors assess the attractiveness of assets outside the US.

The market is also watching the Japanese yen, which has continued to strengthen after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned investors against betting against the currency.

Bessent said he had a “pretty good insight” into Bank of Japan policy decisions, including when the central bank takes policy action or intervenes in the yen market.

Investors are also awaiting US Consumer Price Index data, which could offer further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction ahead of its meeting next week.

A softer US inflation reading could strengthen expectations for monetary easing by the Fed, potentially weighing on the dollar and supporting demand for higher-yielding emerging-market assets. A stronger-than-expected reading, however, could reinforce expectations for tighter US monetary policy and put pressure on emerging-market currencies.

Meanwhile, rising oil prices are adding another source of pressure on the rupiah as escalating tensions in the Middle East raise concerns over inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

US officials said Iran attempted to attack US Navy vessels on Monday, Sept. 7, after reportedly targeting an aircraft carrier with ballistic missiles over the weekend

Iranian state media, meanwhile, reported that a US missile struck a small oil tanker about four miles from Kharg Island on Tuesday, Sept. 8.

Oil prices have also been supported by a 30,000-barrel decline in US crude inventories last week.

Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked infrastructure in Novorossiysk, a major Russian oil terminal on the Black Sea, on Wednesday, Sept. 9, adding to concerns over global energy supplies.

Against the backdrop, Josua expects the rupiah to trade between Rp17,475 and Rp17,600 per US dollar on Thursday.

“The rupiah is expected to trade within a range of Rp17,475-Rp17,600 per US dollar today,” Josua said.

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