Jakarta. Indonesian stocks opened higher on Wednesday, gaining 0.25% to 5,940, as investors weighed lingering geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path ahead of key US inflation data.

Some 2.18 billion shares changed hands in early trading, with a transaction value of Rp 230.78 billion ($12.88 million) across 38,913 transactions. A total of 283 stocks rose, 137 fell and 239 remained unchanged.

Phintraco Sekuritas said negative sentiment continued to stem from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistently high oil prices, expectations for US inflation data, the possibility of further Fed rate hikes, and concerns surrounding MSCI and their impact on Indonesian stocks.

Pluang Research, meanwhile, said remarks by New York Fed President John Williams offered the clearest signal yet that the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle was approaching its end. Williams still anticipated one more rate hike this year but saw no reason for further increases in 2027, as inflation was expected to ease with the fading effects of tariffs and energy prices.

“The market immediately responded with a decline in two-year bond yields,” Pluang said in its research note on Wednesday.

Investors are awaiting the US consumer price index (CPI) report for September, with headline inflation expected to accelerate to 0.6% month-to-month (MoM) and 3.7% year-on-year (YoY), from 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY in August 2026.

Core inflation is projected to reach 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, compared with 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY in August. Higher-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood of a Fed rate hike at its Oct. 27-28 meeting.

In China, investors are monitoring September inflation data, expected to rise to 1% YoY from 0.8% in August, alongside trade figures due Wednesday. Exports are forecast to grow 25.5% YoY, up from 25% in August, while import growth is expected to slow to 24.5% from 28.2%.

Domestic market concerns also persist over share ownership concentration. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) added 19 stocks to its High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) list on Monday, flagging issuers whose shares are concentrated among a relatively small number of investors.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said the additions had drawn investor attention to ownership structures and shareholding concentration among issuers in the Indonesian capital market.

Across regional markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.31% and South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.38% as of 8:53 a.m. Jakarta time. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.29%.

Wall Street closed mixed but tilted lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged at 7,805.45, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.15% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.35%.

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