Jakarta. The cost of returning home for the 2025 Eid holiday, or mudik, is projected to increase by up to 30 percent due to rising fuel prices and soaring transportation fares. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty and a wave of layoffs continue to loom over many workers.

"On average, families are expected to allocate between Rp 3 million ($181.5 million) and Rp 5 million for mudik in 2025, compared to just Rp 2.5 million to Rp 4 million in 2024," said Achmad Nur Hidayat, an economist and public policy expert from UPN Veteran Jakarta, on Tuesday.

Achmad said the increased costs may force lower-income workers to either cancel their trips or reduce their Eid-related expenses. Surveys show that only 146.48 million Indonesians will travel this Eid homecoming season, marking a 24 percent drop from 193.6 million travelers recorded last year.

Another factor impacting mudik is the rising number of layoffs. In 2024 alone, 77,965 layoffs were recorded, with an additional 3,325 workers losing their jobs in January 2025. The number is expected to rise by another 60,000 from 50 companies by February.

"This phenomenon not only affects family reunions but also has economic implications. Mudik has long been a key driver of economic activity in destination areas such as Central Java, East Java, and Sumatra," he said.

A decline in homecoming trips could impact local small businesses that rely on holiday travelers, including souvenir and food vendors. If this trend continues, sectors such as transportation and tourism—key seasonal economic drivers—could also suffer.

The economic strain comes at a time when Ramadan and Eid typically see a surge in consumer spending. Households allocate funds for food, new clothing, and travel preparations, making this period the peak of Indonesia's consumption cycle.

Achmad projected that consumer spending during Ramadan 2025 could reach Rp 1,188 trillion, with growth estimated at only 5-7 percent—a slowdown compared to the 9-12 percent growth recorded in 2023 and 2024.

"Recent data shows that while seasonal spending still increases, the growth rate is lower than in previous years," Achmad said.

Indonesia’s Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) estimates Eid-related financial turnover will reach nearly Rp 138 trillion, down from Rp 157.3 trillion in 2024. The decline is based on assumptions that the average family spends Rp 3.75 million during Eid travels.

Kadin Deputy Chairman Sarman Simanjorang attributed the drop to mass layoffs, weaker purchasing power, and poor weather. Many families are prioritizing savings for school expenses as the academic year approaches. He also noted that Eid al-Fitr, expected on March 31, falls just months after the year-end holidays, leading some to forgo travel.