Jakarta. Indonesia’s benchmark index opened firmly in the green on Friday, tracking improved global risk appetite as hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East offset lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose 38.9 points, or 0.53%, to 7,346.49 at the open, moving within a range of 7,346–7,369 in early trade.

RTI data showed 708.63 million shares changed hands in the opening minutes, with a transaction value of Rp 469.33 billion across 64,611 trades. Gainers outpaced losers, with 322 stocks advancing, 95 declining, and 225 unchanged.

Global sentiment remained heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East, with markets oscillating between optimism over de-escalation and uncertainty surrounding the implementation of a ceasefire. A two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, reopened diplomatic channels but left key issues unresolved, particularly Iran’s request to include Lebanon, which was rejected by the US and Israel.

Israel’s continued strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon heightened tensions and drew accusations of ceasefire violations from Iran.

However, sentiment improved after Israel signaled readiness to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon, including discussions on Hezbollah’s disarmament, seen by markets as a potential step toward reconciliation.

Still, risks remain elevated. Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia noted in a Friday research that former US president Donald Trump asserted US forces would remain stationed around Iran until a “real agreement” is reached, warning of escalation if negotiations fail. Iran, meanwhile, continues military activity and maintains pressure in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The market currently assesses that the worst-case scenario is starting to fade, especially the risk of oil staying far above $100,” Kiwoom said. “But the path toward peace remains full of bumps, so volatility remains high and market movements are still very headline-driven.”

On the domestic front, the government is targeting economic growth of at least 5.5% in the first quarter of 2026 and around 5.4% for the full year. This outlook is supported by strong household consumption, accounting for 54% of GDP, robust fiscal performance, with tax revenue up 14.3% year-on-year, and a manufacturing sector that remains in expansion.

Despite external risks such as Middle East tensions and oil price volatility, authorities consider the impact manageable, assuming oil prices average around $76 per barrel and a fiscal sensitivity of roughly Rp 6 trillion for every $1 increase.

To sustain growth momentum, the government is preparing follow-up policies, including the implementation of B50 biodiesel, projected to save Rp 48 trillion, and maintaining fiscal discipline, with a debt ratio of around 40% and a deficit near 3% through 2026.

Reflecting this optimism, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa criticized the World Bank’s projection of 4.7% growth for Indonesia in 2026, calling it inaccurate and potentially detrimental to market sentiment. He pointed to a strong first-quarter performance, with growth potentially exceeding 5.6%.

Overnight, US equities advanced despite higher oil prices, as markets stabilized following a surge driven by ceasefire optimism. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% after erasing earlier losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8%.

In Asia, markets traded higher. As of 9:23 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.60% to 56,792, South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.82% to 5,884, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.96% to 25,998, and China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 1.11% to 4,010.

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