Jakarta. An economist said Wednesday that ASEAN might struggle to agree on a common plan on how to negotiate the US tariffs in the bloc’s upcoming leaders’ summit due to the members’ diverse economic statuses.

ASEAN leaders, including President Prabowo Subianto, are scheduled to gather in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur next week. ASEAN has until July 9 before US President Donald Trump’s tariffs -- which exceed 40 percent for some of the group’s members -- kick in. These “reciprocal tariffs” will likely become an inevitable topic as the Southeast Asian club braces for the impact of the worsening global economic uncertainties. 

As the leaders’ summit nears, Taimur Baig, the chief economist at DBS Group Research, told the press that it would be “very difficult” for ASEAN to reach a common plan on how each member should engage in their respective US tariff negotiations.

The reason? Each country is at a different stage of development. Only two ASEAN members, Brunei and Singapore, are in the high-income category, while the others are either at the upper-middle or lower-middle level. 

“ASEAN has one peculiar problem; it is very heterogeneous. You have small countries and big countries. There are high-income versus] low-income economies, commodity-exporting economies and large importers [all within the same region]. … They have very different imperatives and macro characteristics. The things that Indonesia discusses with the US might be fundamentally different from those of Thailand or Malaysia,” Baig said. 

"I'm not very optimistic about ASEAN being able to come up with a common negotiation plan."

However, ASEAN should try to find “a common element” so it would not crumble under Trump's pressure to mirror his tariff moves against China, according to Baig. The economist said that ASEAN nations would find it "extremely impossible" to replicate the US' tariffs on Chinese goods. He added: "ASEAN has always been about mutually beneficial relations by coming up with a common platform that is good for the region.”

Trump 2.0’s tariff campaign on US-bound Chinese goods peaked at 145 percent, although the businessman-turned-politician recently decided to temporarily lower it to 30 percent for 3 months. ASEAN is China’s biggest trading partner. Chinese customs data reported that the country’s total trade with ASEAN hit $234 billion in Q1 2025. 

The US has imposed a baseline 10 percent tax on imports from all countries. Trump, however, has paused his higher, country-specific reciprocal tariffs until July 9. All ASEAN economies are not safe from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, although the rates for each member differ. Cambodia gets the short end of the stick and faces a threat of a 49 percent reciprocal tariff. Followed by Laos (48 percent), Vietnam (46 percent), Myanmar (44 percent), and Thailand (36 percent). Indonesia will be subject to a 32 percent tariff if its goods wish to enter the American market. The US has decided to charge Malaysia and Brunei 24 percent tariffs. Trump intends to launch a 17 percent levy on Philippine goods, while the tariffs on Singapore stand at the baseline 10 percent.

The US data showed that the country’s goods trade with ASEAN amounted to $476.8 billion in 2024. Washington ran a $227.7 billion deficit when trading with the 10-member group. A deficit means that the US imports more from ASEAN than it exports to the region. 

Last month, ASEAN issued a regional statement that pressed for a “frank and constructive" tariff dialogue with the US. The Malaysia-led group also decided not to take any retaliatory measures.

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