Jakarta. The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) has raised doubts over the credibility of Indonesia’s second-quarter economic growth figure, calling the 5.12 percent year-on-year expansion released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) an “anomaly” that does not reflect the real economy.

At a public discussion on Wednesday, Andri Satrio Nugroho, Head of INDEF’s Center of Industry, Trade, and Investment, questioned how growth could accelerate in Q2, traditionally a weaker period without the boost of Ramadan or Eid al-Fitr spending, surpassing the 4.87 percent recorded in Q1.

“Is this economic growth an anomaly? Or is there some window dressing at play?” Andri asked. “It’s surprising that growth is stronger in a quarter without the Ramadan effect.”

He also highlighted a disconnect between macroeconomic data and industry reports, particularly from retailers. While BPS reported a 5.37 percent year-on-year growth in the trade sector and household consumption --which accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s GDP-- grew 4.97 percent in the second quarter, retailers have observed sluggish sales and weakening purchasing power. This is reflected in the popular terms Rojali and Rohana, used to describe mall visitors who rarely make purchases.

“Retailers and associations tell us Q2 was far from strong,” Andri said. “The ‘Rojali-Rohana’ phenomenon shows the retail sector is under pressure and not performing like in previous years.”

Indef senior economist Fadhil Hasan echoed the concerns, pointing to softening indicators such as declining household consumption, falling vehicle sales, and a drop in the consumer confidence index. He also cited foreign direct investment (FDI) data, which fell to Rp202.2 trillion in Q2 from Rp217.3 trillion a year earlier.

Fadhil further noted that tax revenues, including value-added tax (VAT) and luxury tax (PPnBM), were down, contradicting the narrative of robust economic growth.

“The official 5.12 percent figure is well above the analyst consensus of around 4.8 percent. That calls for greater transparency and accountability from the government in reporting growth,” he said.

Chief Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto dismissed suggestions that consumer spending is weakening. He said the weakening consumption narratives misinterpret shifting consumption patterns, particularly the migration from brick-and-mortar retail to online shopping.

“What we’re seeing is not a decline in spending, but a change in consumer behavior,” Airlangga told reporters in Jakarta on Tuesday. “Retail sales are rising in both offline and online channels.”

He said cosmetics, household items, and office supplies are among the top performers in e-commerce, showing that purchasing power remains intact.

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