Jakarta. Shares of Indonesian technology company GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO) could mechanically fall to Rp 1 within about four weeks if they continue hitting the Indonesia Stock Exchange's daily lower price limit, an analyst said Wednesday, underscoring the extraordinary selling pressure on the stock.

“If GOTO continues to hit auto rejection every day, it would reach Rp 1 in 19 trading days, or four trading weeks -- around the end of October -- assuming there are no holidays, trading suspensions or further regulatory changes,” Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia Head of Research Liza Camelia Suryanata said in a market commentary.

The calculation is not a forecast that GOTO will actually fall to Rp 1. It's a mechanical scenario to illustrate how quickly the stock could theoretically reach the exchange's newly introduced minimum price if the current one-sided selling persists.

GOTO plunged another 13.5% on Wednesday to Rp 32, hitting the lower auto-rejection limit for a third consecutive session.

The shares have now fallen 36% from Rp 50, their closing level before the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) introduced a new Rp 1 minimum share price on Sept. 28.

Under the rules in effect through the end of 2026, shares priced above Rp 10 can fall by up to 15% per trading session. Once a stock trades between Rp 1 and Rp 10, its lower auto-rejection limit is Rp 1 per session.

Huge Sell Queue, Few Buyers
Liza said the scale of the sell orders relative to completed transactions illustrates the severe imbalance between supply and demand for GOTO shares.

On Sept. 28, around 1 billion lots of GOTO shares were reportedly queued for sale at the lower limit of Rp 43. Only about 1.2 million lots changed hands at that price, equivalent to roughly 0.12% of the sell queue.

The following session, around 842 million lots were queued for sale at Rp 37, while trading volume reached only about 1.8 million lots, or roughly 0.21% of the queue.

The orders in the queue are not necessarily permanent: investors can cancel, change or add sell orders as market conditions evolve.

But the figures illustrate how little buying demand has so far been available to absorb shares offered at the lower price limit.

Assuming daily trading volume remains around 1.5 million to 2 million lots, Liza estimated that only about 31.5 million to 41 million lots would change hands during a hypothetical decline from Rp 50 to Rp 1.

That would represent only around 3%-4% of the approximately 1 billion-lot sell queue recorded on the first day.

In theory, therefore, GOTO could reach the Rp 1 floor long before an amount of stock equivalent to that initial sell queue had changed hands.

Liza cautioned, however, that the calculation should not be interpreted as meaning that the original queue would remain intact throughout the decline. Sell orders can be withdrawn, while new buyers and sellers can enter the market at any time.

She said the current trading pattern had yet to demonstrate healthy price discovery, with consecutive lower-limit sessions and extremely thin buying demand instead indicating a heavily one-sided liquidation.

Improving Fundamentals Meet Selling Pressure
The sharp share-price decline comes despite significant improvements in GoTo's operating performance.

GoTo reported net revenue of Rp 5.65 trillion ($315.7 million) in the second quarter of 2026, up 31% from Rp 4.33 trillion a year earlier.

Group adjusted EBITDA surged 137% year on year to Rp 1.01 trillion ($56.4 million), from Rp 427 billion, while the company recorded a second consecutive quarterly net profit.

GoTo's fintech business also overtook its on-demand services operation in profitability for the first time, with the company saying fintech adjusted EBITDA exceeded that of on-demand services during the quarter.

Liza said, however, that improving earnings may provide limited support to the share price when the immediate imbalance between sellers and buyers is so large.

Investors are also assessing the potential impact of an 8% commission cap on ride-hailing services on the profitability of GoTo's on-demand business.

GoTo itself has already lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance for the on-demand services segment to Rp 1.4 trillion-Rp 1.5 trillion from Rp 1.7 trillion-Rp 1.8 trillion, citing the impact of the 8% application commission.

The new IDX rules, which took effect Sept. 28, lowered the minimum permitted share price from Rp 50 to Rp 1. The change gives stocks previously pinned at Rp 50 considerably more room to move as the exchange seeks to improve price discovery and market liquidity.

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