BNI to Benefit Most from Government's Rp 200T Liquidity Support: Analyst
Jakarta. Shares of state lender Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) are poised to strengthen following a Rp 200 trillion ($12.2 billion) government fund placement in state-owned banks, a move expected to bolster liquidity and improve profitability.
According to Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia, the injection will lift the excess liquidity of the state-owned banks grouping in Himbara by 37 percent, reducing reliance on higher-cost third-party funds and easing funding costs. “BNI stands to benefit the most from the government’s liquidity placement given its relatively low net interest margin,” Verdhana wrote in a report.
Himbara, short for Himpunan Bank Negara, is a strategic alliance of state-owned lenders initiated by the State-Owned Enterprises Ministry to strengthen cooperation and synergy among the country’s biggest banks.
Currently, Himbara’s excess liquidity amounts to Rp 435 trillion ($26.5 billion), consisting of Rp 117 trillion ($7.1 billion) at BNI, Rp 190 trillion ($11.6 billion) at Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Rp 97 trillion ($5.9 billion) at Bank Mandiri, and Rp 31 trillion ($1.9 billion) at Bank Syariah Indonesia. The government allocated Rp 55 trillion ($3.4 billion) each to BNI, BRI, and Mandiri, which could be channeled into higher-yield lending segments.
BNI also appears less vulnerable to cuts in the government’s interest subsidy budget, which is set to decline to Rp 42 trillion in the 2026 draft state budget from Rp 44 trillion this year. At the same time, the bank could benefit from lower government bond yields and controlled funding costs.
Another advantage for BNI is its relatively cheap valuation compared with its peers. The lender’s price-to-book value stands at just 1.0 times, versus 4.1 times for Bank Central Asia, 1.8 times for Mandiri, and 2.0 times for BRI.
Verdhana maintained its “buy” recommendation on BNI, setting a target price of Rp 6,100 per share, equivalent to 1.3 times its estimated 2025 book value. On Friday, BNI’s stock extended its rally, climbing 2.2 percent to Rp 4,520.
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