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NASA: Earth Safe from Asteroid 2024 YR4, But Moon Impact Still Possible

Associated Press
February 25, 2025 | 10:29 pm
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This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system, shows an arrow where asteroid 2024 YR4 would be, Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)
This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system, shows an arrow where asteroid 2024 YR4 would be, Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)

Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scientists have officially ruled out any significant threat to Earth from the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4.

After two months of observations, NASA and the European Space Agency announced Tuesday that the asteroid poses no danger to the planet. Initial calculations suggested a nearly 3% chance of impact in 2032, briefly placing it atop global asteroid-risk lists.

However, ESA has since reduced the probability to just 0.001 percent, while NASA's estimate stands at 0.0027 percent—confirming that the asteroid will pass safely by Earth in 2032, with no risk of impact for at least the next century.

Despite the reduced threat to Earth, NASA reports a 1.7 percent chance that the asteroid could strike the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. Astronomers will continue tracking its trajectory, with the Webb Space Telescope set to observe it next month to refine estimates of its size. The asteroid is expected to fade from view in the coming months.

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Discovered in December, 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter and swings past Earth every four years.

"While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity" for study, NASA said in a statement.

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