On July 29, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on US military installations in Jordan. Jordan said it intercepted five Iranian missiles. Earlier that month, three American service members were killed in a separate Iranian attack in Jordan.

Elsewhere, Iran attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iran-aligned Houthis targeted Saudi tankers and oil facilities at the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu, disrupting critical maritime traffic through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb.

Many observers may view Iran's repeated provocations against Israel and the United States -- two adversaries with far greater military and financial resources -- as an act of strategic suicide. Yet Tehran's approach, which accepts significant damage in exchange for imposing mounting political, economic, and military costs on its opponents, appears less like suicide and more like a calculated kamikaze strategy.

Escalation by Design
Washington has responded forcefully, though not always predictably. The United States launched a two-week retaliatory campaign and later considered resuming its strikes, raising the prospect of even more devastating consequences. Yet after regional powers urged restraint and diplomacy, President Donald Trump postponed the planned offensive. The conflict has since settled into a cycle of escalation, pause, and renewed escalation.

Neither side trusts diplomacy. Tehran believes Washington attacked Iran during an active period of negotiations and continues to view Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement as proof that US commitments cannot be relied upon. Iran therefore sees temporary ceasefires as tactical pauses rather than genuine opportunities for peace.

Within Iran, the decentralized command structure of the Revolutionary Guards allows some commanders to conduct operations without direct authorization from Tehran. While this structure enhances operational resilience, it also increases the risk of unintended escalation and strategic miscalculation.

The Logic of Kamikaze
Military asymmetry and geography underpin Iran's confidence. Its missile launchers are concealed, mobile, and widely dispersed, making them difficult to eliminate through repeated airstrikes.

Iran also exploits the economics of modern warfare. Relatively inexpensive missiles and drones compel the United States to use interceptors costing millions of dollars to destroy far cheaper weapons. Reports indicate that US forces have already expended approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles, more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, over 1,200 Patriot interceptors, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS missiles. Such inventories cannot be replenished quickly.

Iran therefore does not need to match American military power. It only needs to endure, preserve its ability to retaliate, and steadily increase US financial and political costs.

From Tehran's perspective, this strategy may already be yielding results. It has denied Washington a decisive victory without defeating the United States militarily. Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities have been weakened but not eliminated. The security of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. US forces are increasingly stretched across the region, while Arab allies are growing more anxious. US officials have also reportedly complained that Israel overstated the likelihood of a swift campaign, which has now entered its sixth month.

The War Comes Home for Trump
The conflict is also becoming a growing domestic political burden for President Trump. According to polling compiled by The New York Times, his approval rating has fallen to 34% in CNN's survey, 33% in AP-NORC's, and 32% in Quinnipiac's, making him one of the least popular second-term presidents at this stage of an administration since modern polling began in the 1940s.

Those numbers appear to be affecting Republican electoral prospects. Election forecasts suggest Democrats have nearly a 75% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives while gaining roughly 20 seats compared with 2024. Democrats are also increasingly competitive in Senate races in traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Alaska, and Iowa -- states Trump carried comfortably in the 2024 presidential election.

These trends suggest that the political costs of the conflict are narrowing the Republican Party's electoral advantage. Rising energy prices, mounting military losses, or failed diplomatic initiatives could shift voter sentiment in swing states and even some traditionally Republican districts within months.

Trump's Global Rejection, Israel's Legitimacy Crisis
Trump is facing growing challenges abroad as well. A Pew Research Center survey found that international attitudes toward both President Trump and the United States have turned broadly negative, with Europe experiencing the sharpest decline. Confidence in Trump has fallen significantly since 2025 across eight European countries, including declines of 15 percentage points in both Greece and Italy.

Israel's global standing has also deteriorated sharply. According to Pew, only 25% of respondents across 36 countries expressed a favorable view of Israel, while a median of 67% held an unfavorable opinion. Support for the Israeli government is also weakening in the United States, including among American Jews.

One Worldwide Risk, Three Chokepoints
Meanwhile, the economic risks are spreading well beyond the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Wall Street Journal, at least 67 commercial vessels have been attacked or boarded since the conflict began, resulting in the deaths of at least 17 seafarers. Most recently, the American-owned gas storage tanker Energos Winter was struck by a drone on July 29 while docked at Egypt's Port of Damietta, raising the possibility of a new front near the Suez Canal.

Should instability simultaneously disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal, the regional conflict could evolve into a global economic shock. Higher insurance premiums, longer shipping routes, freight disruptions, and surging energy prices would ultimately affect consumers far beyond the Middle East.

Diplomacy Before the Point of No Return
The global economy is entering increasingly uncertain territory while politically connected intermediaries dominate negotiations whose consequences extend far beyond Washington and Tehran. The United Nations, Oman, the Gulf states, the European Union, and China should intensify diplomatic efforts to safeguard international shipping lanes and facilitate a sustainable political settlement.

Otherwise, Trump's mounting frustration and Iran's escalating brinkmanship may collide in ways that trigger a humanitarian catastrophe and inflict widespread economic suffering far beyond the battlefield.

---
Didin Nasirudin is a doctoral candidate in Political Communications and Diplomacy at Sahid University, with a research focus on US politics. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

Add as a preferred source on Google +