Washington. Washington is just hours away from another federal government shutdown, with little sign of a last-minute compromise in Congress to keep federal offices open past 12:01 a.m. Wednesday (11:01 a.m. the same day in Jakarta).

Republicans have put forward a short-term bill to fund the government through Nov. 21. But Democrats say the measure must also address health care concerns, including reversing Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s spending bill passed this summer and extending tax credits that help millions of Americans afford insurance under the Affordable Care Act. Republicans have dismissed the demand as a non-starter.

Neither side appears willing to give ground, and the House is not expected to vote this week. Here’s what happens if funding lapses:

What happens in a shutdown?

When funding expires, federal agencies must stop operations and furlough “non-excepted” employees. Workers deemed “excepted,” such as those protecting life and property, continue working without pay until the shutdown ends.

During the 35-day partial shutdown in Trump’s first term, about 340,000 of the 800,000 affected federal workers were furloughed, while the rest worked without pay.

What government work continues?

Much of it. FBI agents, CIA officers, air traffic controllers, and Transportation Security Administration screeners all remain on duty. Members of the armed forces also stay at their posts.

Programs funded through mandatory spending are generally unaffected. Social Security checks continue to go out, Medicare beneficiaries can still see doctors and get reimbursed, and veterans’ medical centers remain open. VA benefits and burials at national cemeteries also continue.

Will furloughed workers get paid?

Yes. A 2019 law requires that all furloughed and excepted employees receive back pay once funding is restored. Still, workers could miss one or more paychecks depending on the shutdown’s length, causing financial strain. Service members would also get retroactive pay.

Will mail service be affected?

No. The US Postal Service operates independently of federal appropriations and is funded through its own products and services.

What closes during a shutdown?

Each agency follows its own contingency plan, deciding which workers to furlough and which services to maintain.

The Trump administration previously took unusual steps to lessen the impact of the 2018–2019 shutdown, reopening offices selectively in ways some experts said skirted legal boundaries.

This time, the White House Office of Management and Budget has warned agencies to prepare for possible mass layoffs. An OMB memo urged issuing reduction-in-force notices for programs whose funding expires Oct. 1 and lack alternative resources. That would go beyond past practice, when furloughed workers returned after Congress restored funding. Permanent layoffs would eliminate positions entirely, adding to cuts already imposed this year.

Examples of agency plans

• Health and Human Services: About 41% of staff would be furloughed. The CDC would keep monitoring disease outbreaks, but public communications would be limited. The NIH Clinical Center would restrict new admissions, except for urgent cases. The FDA would pause reviews of new drug and medical device applications that require user fees.

• Education Department: Roughly 1,500 of 1,700 staff would be furloughed, but Pell Grants and federal student loans would still be disbursed. New grantmaking would stop.

• National Park Service: Parks normally closed after hours would be locked. At open parks, staffing would vary, but many roads, trails, and campgrounds would remain accessible.

• Transportation Department: Air traffic controller training, background checks, and performance analysis would be halted.

• Smithsonian Institution: All museums, including the National Zoo, would close to the public.

Economic impact

Short shutdowns typically have limited economic effect since workers eventually receive back pay, according to Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel. But prolonged closures create uncertainty and gradually drag on growth.

Goldman Sachs Research notes that markets have historically been resilient. In the three longest shutdowns since the 1990s, stocks finished flat or higher despite initial dips.

Goldman estimates a government-wide shutdown could trim US growth by about 0.15 percentage point per week, or 0.2 point once private-sector spillovers are included. Growth would rebound by a similar amount once operations resumed.

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