Jakarta. The idea among five political parties to form the so-called grand coalition for the 2024 presidential election is unlikely to materialize anytime soon after the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) formally announced Ganjar Pranowo as a firm candidate, political analysts said on Friday.

Politicians across parties have publicly voiced support for Ganjar’s nomination but Prabowo Subianto, himself a two-time defeated candidate, has made no secret about his ambition to try his luck for a third time.

Prabowo and his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) are the engine for the grand coalition, which will also involve the Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

The division emanating from two different candidates will make the five-party coalition elusive, according to Yunarto Wijaya, the executive director of political research firm Charta Politika.

He told news broadcaster BTV that PAN and PPP politicians deliberately shouted ‘Ganjar for president!’ in multiple events in his presence.

“As a concept, the so-called grand coalition sounds great but in reality, it will prove elusive,” Yunarto said.

The PDI-P which controls more seats in the House of Representatives than any other party will never back down on Ganjar’s candidacy and probably one or two parties will join in, effectively ending the hope for the grand coalition.

On the other hand, recent polls indicated that Ganjar and Prabowo are on the razor-thin margin, meaning that the latter remains a candidate with a promising prospect.

“It will be difficult to make the so-called grand coalition happen unless the electability of either Ganjar or Prabowo jumps far above the other and opens the door to the possibility of one of them agreeing to give way to the other,” Yunarto said.

“In my opinion, it’s hard to expect the PDI-P as the winner of the last election to back down.”

With less than six months to go before political parties are required to register their presidential candidate with the General Election Commission, many things can happen with regard to the grand coalition.

Prabowo may agree to abandon his presidential ambition and allow the PDI-P to join the grand coalition with Ganjar becoming the candidate.

Another possibility is for the PDI-P to disrupt the establishment of the grand coalition by aligning with one or two parties who prefer Ganjar as a candidate, Yunarto said.

Mohammad Anas from FIXPOLL Indonesia said Ganjar’s nomination may disturb the grand coalition plan because the Central Java governor has become a magnet for several other parties. 

But it’s also possible that the PDI-P will join the grand coalition if it’s granted the driver’s seat.

“Within the next five months, we can anticipate many surprises,” Anas said.