Jakarta. President Prabowo Subianto is one year into Indonesia’s most ambitious welfare experiment, and the political stakes are rising fast.

The Free Nutritious Meals program, launched in January 2025, has become the defining policy of Prabowo’s presidency and a potential make-or-break factor for his reelection bid in 2029. More than 55 million beneficiaries — schoolchildren and expecting mothers — were served in its first year. But uneven execution, supply bottlenecks, and growing fiscal pressure risk turning a flagship achievement into a liability.

Survey data from pollster LSI Denny JA shows that the program is nearly universally known, with 93.6% of Indonesians aware of the program. Around 75% believe it provides real benefits. Approval, however, remains fragile: 53.8% say they are satisfied, while almost 40% are dissatisfied.

“When dissatisfaction exceeds 30%, that’s no longer noise — it signals a serious policy problem,” LSI researcher Adjie Alfaraby told the Jakarta Globe. “People agree with the idea of the free meal program, but they are disappointed with how it’s being delivered.”

Satisfaction has improved, rising from 45.3% in June to 53.8% by October, showing rapid expansion. The National Nutrition Agency (BGN) says the program now operates more than 19,000 kitchens, supporting about 900,000 direct jobs and roughly 2.5 million across related supply chains.

Economically, the program is reshaping local markets. Eliza Mardian, a researcher at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, said the free meal initiative has boosted job absorption and created a new village-level ecosystem through requirements to source from cooperatives and local MSMEs. 

Fiscal risks, however, are intensifying. The 2026 budget could approach half of total education spending. Eliza warned that expanding coverage to 82.9 million recipients may cost Rp 335 trillion ($19.9 billion), arguing the program should be more tightly targeted at poorer, high-stunting regions.

Prabowo has framed the rollout as a major success, declaring the program “99.99% successful” despite 16,000 food-poisoning cases out of roughly 1.4 billion servings, and has pledged nationwide coverage in 2026.

For now, the president is benefiting from a political honeymoon. “Failures are still seen as technical, not leadership failures,” Adjie said. But politically, the free meal program is unavoidable. It is Prabowo’s most visible legacy project and the clearest test of his leadership.

“If it works, it strengthens him,” Adjie said. “If it fails, the blame is on him.”

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